UK June CPI Core 3.7% and Retail Sales Rebound; Sweden GDP June 0.5% MoM; Switzerland CPI MoM 0.2%

Recent economic data from several European countries indicate varying inflation and growth trends for June and the second quarter of 2025. Switzerland's consumer price index (CPI) rose by 0.2% month-over-month (MoM) in June, exceeding the previous 0.1% and an estimated 0.0%. Its core CPI year-over-year (YoY) increased to 0.6%, matching estimates and surpassing the prior 0.5%. Sweden reported a June CPI MoM increase of 0.5%, higher than the previous 0.1% and the estimated 0.1%, while its CPI YoY rose to 0.8%, above the prior 0.2% and the 0.4% forecast. The Swedish CPIF (CPI with fixed interest rates) also increased 0.5% MoM compared to 0.1% previously and an estimate of 0.2%. Sweden's GDP indicator showed a 0.5% seasonally adjusted (SA) monthly increase in June, reversing a previous decline of 0.2%, with a working-day adjusted (WDA) YoY growth of 1.0%, up from 0.5%. However, the Q2 GDP indicator SA quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) rose only 0.1%, below the 0.3% estimate, and the WDA YoY growth slowed to 0.9% from 1.1%, missing the 1.4% forecast. The UK’s inflation data for June showed a CPI MoM increase of 0.3%, above the previous 0.2% and the 0.1% estimate. The UK CPI YoY rose to 3.6%, compared to 3.4% previously and estimates, while core CPI YoY was 3.7%, higher than the prior 3.5% and estimated 3.5%. The CPI services YoY remained steady at 4.7%, slightly above the 4.5% forecast. The CPIH YoY increased to 4.1%, above the previous 4.0% and estimate. The Retail Price Index (RPI) showed a MoM rise of 0.4% and a YoY increase of 4.4%, both higher than prior figures and estimates. Excluding mortgage interest payments, RPI YoY was 4.3%, up from 4.1%. UK retail sales rebounded strongly in June, with core retail sales rising 0.6% MoM against a previous -2.8% and an estimate of 1.2%, and 1.8% YoY compared to -1.3% previously and 2.0% forecast. Overall retail sales increased 0.9% MoM and 1.7% YoY, both improvements from prior declines and close to estimates. Norway’s retail sales including auto fuel remained flat MoM in June, unchanged from the previous month.