Canada’s federal public service could shrink by as many as 57,000 positions over the next four years, according to an analysis released Thursday by the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives. The study, authored by senior economist David Macdonald, models the impact of spending-reduction targets recently set out by Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne: departments are being asked to cut program budgets 7.5% next fiscal year, 10% the year after and 15% by 2028-29. Nearly half of the projected job losses—about 24,000 full-time equivalents—would fall in Ottawa and neighbouring Gatineau, where the federal workforce is concentrated. Outside the National Capital Region, Macdonald estimates Ontario could shed 7,800 positions and Quebec roughly 5,900, with additional reductions spread across the country. The report says the Canada Revenue Agency, Employment and Social Development Canada and Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada are likely to take the largest hits after already trimming staff this year. Defence, the RCMP, the Canada Border Services Agency, the Supreme Court and the Parliamentary Budget Office are classed as “protected” and would face a smaller 2% cut. Macdonald warns that the downsizing—intended to help finance higher military spending and promised tax relief—risks longer wait times for federal services unless ministers opt to trim other operating costs instead of payroll.