Global money managers have turned markedly more upbeat, according to Bank of America’s August Global Fund Manager Survey. The poll of 190 investors overseeing roughly $538 billion shows overall sentiment at its most bullish since February, with the perceived probability of a hard economic landing dropping to the lowest level since January. Cash holdings were trimmed to 3.9 % of assets under management, near historic lows, while equity exposure continued to climb, although the bank said positioning is not yet at “extreme” levels. The optimism is tempered by valuation worries. A record net 91 % of respondents say U.S. equities are overvalued after a rally that has lifted the S&P 500 about 30 % since early April. Seventy percent expect the global economy to slip into stagflation—high inflation coupled with weak growth—over the next 12 months, unchanged from July. Emerging-market equities are viewed as the most undervalued asset class, while the so-called Magnificent 7 technology names remain the survey’s most crowded trade. Rates expectations have swung sharply: a net 78 % of managers anticipate lower short-term interest rates within a year, reflecting softer economic data and expectations that the Federal Reserve will pivot to easing. The biggest perceived macro risks are an escalation of the trade war (29 %) and inflation persisting enough to prevent rate cuts (27 %). Respondents put the odds of Christopher Waller becoming the next Fed chair at 20 %, just ahead of Kevin Hassett at 19 % and Kevin Warsh at 15 %.
Bank of America fund manager survey raises eyebrows https://t.co/KYVKJfOEdq
Bloomberg: BofA trims year-end yield targets 2Y at 3.5%, 10Y at 4.25% on softer data, Fed tilt to lower rates, and political influence risks. Markets price >2 cuts by Dec, ~80% odds of Sept easing, possibly 50bps.
美国银行:滞胀担忧占据主导 在美国银行8月份的基金经理调查中,70%的投资者预计未来一年全球经济将出现滞胀(高通胀和疲软增长),与7月份持平。