The U.S. dollar’s downturn accelerated in late June, leaving both the ICE U.S. Dollar Index and the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index more than 9% lower for 2025. The slide marks the greenback’s worst start to a calendar year since the benchmarks were introduced and erases nearly all of last year’s gains. Friday’s losses pushed the Bloomberg measure to its weakest level since mid-2023, while the dollar touched its lowest point against the euro since October 2021 and against the Swiss franc since August 2011. Morgan Stanley charts show the broader index at a three-year low. Strategists cite expectations of a relatively dovish Federal Reserve, following a moderation in U.S. inflation, as a key driver of the move. Economist Robin Brooks characterises the retreat as cyclical, whereas New York University professor Scott Galloway warns that shrinking global dollar holdings could raise U.S. borrowing costs and undermine reserve-currency privileges. Market commentators including Peter Schiff add that a softer dollar may amplify the inflationary impact of the 55% tariff on Chinese goods due to take effect next month. Investors have rotated toward assets such as the Swiss franc, gold and bitcoin as alternative hedges amid the currency’s weakest first-half performance on record.
Dollar weakness is cyclical and not structural (i.e. it's not about reserve currency status). Cyclical Dollar weakness is about this chart. US inflation (blue) has slowed, so markets think the Fed will be more dovish than the rest of the G10. No! US inflation is about to rise... https://t.co/P8W0V9ceMt
US Dollar Index Slightly Decreases After Data, Last at 98.08, Down 0.15% 📉💵
Popular podcaster and New York University professor Scott Galloway argues that the U.S. dollar’s decline — down more than 10% against major currencies and recently touching a three-year low — is a sign of deeper economic concerns. Here's why: https://t.co/vr4LsDx34B https://t.co/fgazwywMJd