Wall Street economists are lifting forecasts for July’s Personal Consumption Expenditures price index after both the Consumer Price Index and the Producer Price Index came in stronger than anticipated this week. The PCE gauge, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, is scheduled for release on 29 Aug. RSM US now projects the headline and core PCE price measures to rise 0.35% in July, implying annual rates of 2.7% and 2.9%, respectively. Bank of America tracks core PCE at a 0.30% monthly increase, while Goldman Sachs sees a 0.27% advance. One strategist cautioned that if the monthly gain reached 0.6%, the annualised rate would jump above 7%. The upward revisions underscore concerns that underlying price pressures may re-accelerate, complicating the Federal Reserve’s path to restoring inflation to its 2% target. Policymakers will have two more inflation reports, including the forthcoming PCE figures, before their September meeting.
PPI Well Above Expectations in July; Estimating +0.27% for July Core PCE Goldman https://t.co/70oWKATbSW
BofA: Given today’s PPI and Tuesday’s CPI data, we are tracking core PCE to rise by 0.3% m/m (0.30% unrounded) in July
GS: PPI Well Above Expectations in July; Estimating +0.27% for July Core PCE https://t.co/l40huYeCem