
The Federal Reserve has unveiled its 2025 stress test, which focuses on resilience against significant downturns in the real estate market and credit conditions. The test assumes a severe scenario involving a recession accompanied by a sharp decline in interest rates and inflation, but notably does not account for stagflation. This omission has raised concerns among economists, including Peter Schiff, who warns that if inflation rises instead, major banks may struggle to survive. Following the announcement, Citigroup shares rose by 2.9%, while Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and Bank of America saw gains exceeding 1.5%. The Fed's approach has been criticized for its lack of contingency planning for stagflation, which could pose a serious threat to the economy.
Stagflation, the one scenario the Fed never stress tested for and hopes doesn't happen as it has no contingency plan, looks like that's precisely where we're headed. Today's economic data confirms the economy and labor markets are weakening as inflation pressures are building.
Fed unveiled its 2025 stress test with smaller economic shocks, easing regulatory pressure. Citigroup $C rose 2.9%, with Morgan Stanley $MS, Goldman Sachs $GS, and Bank of America $BAC also gaining over 1.5%.
FRBは銀行ストレステストを発表し、不動産市場やクレジットの大幅な悪化に対する耐性が焦点となった。「極めて厳しいシナリオ」では景気後退に伴う金利とインフレの急低下を想定しているが、スタグフレーションは想定していない。つまりFRBは起こらないことを願うだけである。 https://t.co/uXTZIeRZKj