
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has criticized the Bank of England's economic forecasting methods, urging an overhaul in its approach to predicting economic trends. Bernanke highlighted the need for the BoE to update its technology and forecasting models, which he described as "seriously out of date" and inadequate for recognizing larger structural changes in the economy. He suggested that the BoE should de-emphasize its central forecast based on market interest rate expectations and instead publish more alternative scenarios for the economy. Additionally, Bernanke advised against the reliance on incremental quarterly updates, which may hinder the recognition of significant economic shifts, and recommended scrapping communication tools that have been in place for a generation. His critique extends to the BoE's communication strategies, recommending clearer guidance on interest rate directions and the elimination of fan charts in favor of more qualitative uncertainty descriptions. Bernanke also noted that forecasting errors were probably inevitable and driven by global shocks. He advised replacing the market rate assumption with the Monetary Policy Committee's view but suggested this be left for future deliberation. Bernanke's evaluation comes in the wake of the BoE's repeated failures to accurately forecast surging inflation, a problem he attributes to outdated IT systems and a model that has significantly deteriorated in comparison to other central banks.
An independent review led by former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has shown significant shortcomings in the Bank of England’s forecasting. The BoE’s refusal to take responsibility for its flawed inflation forecasts shows a remarkable lack of accountability.
An independent review led by former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has shown significant shortcomings in the Bank of England’s forecasting. The BoE’s refusal to take responsibility for its flawed inflation forecasts shows a remarkable lack of accountability.
💸 How the Bank of England got its forecasts wrong – again and again https://t.co/HVzIdGmFN9








