Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley analysts have reported substantial downward revisions to U.S. payroll data for 2025, with net revisions for May and June being the largest outside of recessions since 1968. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is expected to release an annual preliminary benchmark revision on September 9, 2025, which could reduce job numbers by 550,000 to 950,000 through March 2025. Year-to-date revisions have already lowered job counts by approximately 461,000, following a 625,000 downward revision in 2024. Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) data suggests that non-farm payrolls were overstated by about 88,888 jobs monthly over the nine months ending December 2024. July’s jobs report showed a loss of 260,000 jobs, one of the highest since the 2020 crisis, with a three-month moving average of -287,667, the second-lowest in five years. The ISM Services PMI Employment index fell to 46.4 points, indicating contraction in services employment for four of the last five months, a pattern rarely seen outside recessions. Consumer sentiment reflects increased pessimism, with 60% of Americans expecting higher unemployment within a year, near levels last seen during the financial crisis. Federal Reserve officials have adopted a dovish stance amid this labor market softness, and markets are pricing in up to three rate cuts by year-end, contingent on upcoming inflation data. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic described the job revisions as significant, highlighting economic churn and turbulence.