
Market Shifts in Expectations for Fed, Central Bank Rate Cuts; Powell Hints at Delayed Return to 2% Inflation, Citigroup Warns
Market expectations regarding rate cuts by central banks are shifting. The Fed is seen with probabilities of a rate cut in May, June, July, and September. Powell hints at a delayed return to 2% inflation, raising doubts about rate cuts this year. Citigroup suggests the market underestimates the likelihood of Fed rate cuts. Rate futures indicate low odds of a rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting, with the only cut expected in September. Bank of England rate swaps show a fully priced-in rate cut in August, with additional cuts expected by December. Overall, the market is now leaning towards the possibility that the Fed may not cut rates at all this year.
Sources
First SquawkUK INTEREST RATE SWAPS SHOW 28 BPS OF BOE RATE CUTS PRICED IN BY AUGUST 1, 58 BPS BY DECEMBER 19
FinancialJuice🔴 UK INTEREST RATE SWAPS SHOW 28 BPS OF BOE RATE CUTS PRICED IN BY AUGUST 1, 58 BPS BY DECEMBER 19.
EvanThe market is now pricing in a higher likelihood that Jerome Powell and the 🇺🇸 Fed DO NOT cut rates at all this year than the probability they cut 3+ times - Bloomberg https://t.co/5m64Rw5oPJ
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