A new National Bureau of Economic Research working paper argues that falling birth-rates across the industrialised world stem less from short-term economic shocks than from a long-run “reordering of adult priorities” that leaves parenthood with diminished appeal. Authors Melissa Kearney and Phillip Levine document rising childlessness and lower completed-family sizes in every high-income nation they study and conclude that traditional explanations such as housing costs cannot alone account for the shift. The release comes as demographic indicators point to a deepening global slowdown in births. Data aggregated by Stats Feed show the world fertility rate sliding from 2.93 in 1994 to 2.25 in 2024 and heading toward 2.07 by 2054—dangerously close to the 2.1 children per woman needed for population stability. In the United States, the total fertility rate is hovering near 1.6, while a 2023 Pew survey found only 22 percent of adults aged 18 to 34 view having children as very important, well below the share prioritising career satisfaction or friendships. Governments are beginning to frame the decline as a strategic risk. A commentary published by Japan’s Observer Research Foundation warns that the country’s shrinking population could erode military readiness and disaster-response capacity, and a separate ORF analysis notes India has slipped under replacement fertility for the first time, joining dozens of countries that have yet to find a way to reverse the trend. The NBER authors say understanding the cultural forces behind these "shifting priorities" is now critical for any effective pronatalist policy.