
Oil prices experienced fluctuations last week, influenced by a variety of factors including hedge fund activity and geopolitical developments. Hedge funds sold positions in crude oil, gold, and soybeans, while showing increased interest in natural gas, sugar, and wheat. Specifically, U.S. natural gas net long positions reached their highest level since March 2021, increasing by 30 billion cubic feet (bcf) to a total of 240 bcf for the week ending February 14. Conversely, Brent and WTI crude oil net long positions saw declines, with Brent decreasing by 24 million barrels (mmb) and WTI by 19 mmb for the week ending February 21. Geopolitical developments also played a significant role in oil price movements. The expectation of resumed oil exports from Iraq's Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) after nearly two years contributed to a downward pressure on oil prices. Iraq plans to export 185,000 barrels per day (bpd) from Kurdistan's oil fields through the Iraq-Turkey pipeline once shipments resume. Additionally, progress in peace talks between Russia and Ukraine raised hopes of an increase in global oil supply, further impacting prices. Brent crude futures were up 13 cents to $74.56 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures added 11 cents to $70.51 on Monday, reflecting these dynamics. U.S. crude oil stocks increased by 4.6 million barrels in the prior week, contributing to WTI falling below $70 per barrel for the first time since late December. In the agricultural sector, hedge funds rotated investments into corn, wheat, and sugar, while reducing exposure in cattle, cocoa, and orange juice. Hedge funds are roughly 41,000 contracts net long across the agriculture complex. The highest-ever open interest in corn futures, with 17% of it managed by hedge funds, suggests a high risk of liquidation. Corn futures are expected to stay above $5 a bushel, and soybeans around $11 in 2025. This shift in investment focus is indicative of broader market trends and expectations regarding future commodity prices.
Where do you think Brent crude will be on December 31st 2025?
Positioning reflects oil boredom: the largest WTI long is now a "producer" (PMPU/phys trade), the 2nd largest is "other" (retail), and only then are all funds combined at near historical lows. Oil traders must be busy teaching #gold mkt how commodity cross-pond arb should work.
El petróleo cae ante la expectativa de acuerdo de paz entre Ucrania y Rusia https://t.co/CcG9jqcnnn













