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Top stories

India to Lift Russian Oil Imports Despite New 50% U.S. Tariffs

India to Lift Russian Oil Imports Despite New 50% U.S. Tariffs

Authors

16

1 year ago

China, Russia Blast U.S. Typhon Missile Plan in Japan as Beijing Pressures Manila

US Foreign Policy

China, Russia Blast U.S. Typhon Missile Plan in Japan as Beijing Pressures Manila

Authors

6

1 year ago

Trump Envoy Witkoff Meets Ukrainian Delegation in New York on Security Guarantees

US Foreign Policy

Trump Envoy Witkoff Meets Ukrainian Delegation in New York on Security Guarantees

Authors

21

1 year ago

Russia Says Forces Gain 600–700 km² Monthly in Ukraine Advance

Authors

4

1 year ago

Macron, Merz Lead European Condemnation of Kyiv Strikes That Kill 14 Civilians

Authors

21

1 year ago

US Foreign Policy

Portugal’s President Calls Trump ‘Russian Asset,’ Pressuring NATO Unity

Authors

10

1 year ago

Moscow Rejects Western Security Plan for Ukraine, Warns Against NATO Troops

Authors

12

1 year ago

US Foreign Policy

US Approves $825 Million Missile Sale to Ukraine After Kyiv Strikes

Authors

41

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Russia

How will the Ukraine-Russia border look like in 2030?

Jul 2, 9:32 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

683152907

OptionProbability

Ukraine ceding more than Crimea to Russia

No cease-fire of 6 months

Pre-2014: Crimea controlled by Ukraine

Pre-2022: Crimea controlled by Russia but not more

No Ukraine anymore

No Russia anymore

61

22

10

6

1

1

Will Trump visit Russia during his term?

Nov 10, 4:57 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31%chance

529123226

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2841

1469

(10k subsidy) 1 year after Putin, who will be the apparent leader of Russia?

Oct 24, 3:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6562202

OptionProbability

Other

Nikolai Patrushev

Mikhail Mishustin

Chaos - no clear controller of Moscow

Dmitry Medvedev

Aleksey Dyumin

Sergei Shoigu

Aleksandr Bortnikov

Sergey Naryshkin

Sergei Sobyanin

Ramzan Kadyrov

Alexey Navalny

Yulia Navalny

44

13

10

7

6

5

4

2

2

2

2

1

1

Will Russia launch an invasion against at least one of the Baltic states by February 2029?

Nov 6, 4:14 PMFeb 3, 7:59 AM

18.6%chance

8948759

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12640

6410

Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin while he is still Russia's president?

Nov 13, 6:35 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

7.46%chance

14535624

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2977

1215

Will russia occupy kyiv at any point before 2030?

May 11, 12:09 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

17%chance

4631623

OptionVotes

YES

NO

221

45

Will Volodomyr Zelenskyy be in power at the conclusion of the Russia-Ukraine war?

Nov 11, 2:36 PMJun 1, 12:59 AM

57.2%chance

19029875

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1477

1087

Will Vladimir Putin stop being president of Russia before Volodymyr Zelensky stops being president of Ukraine?

Aug 29, 8:41 PMOct 7, 8:59 PM

18.44%chance

14817875

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3428

1329

Will Russia invade a new country by the end of 2030?

Jun 11, 7:40 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

55.91%chance

627194

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1129

890

Will Donald Trump ever visit Russia?

Jan 20, 1:51 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

61.7%chance

815594

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1664

813

Division of FSB (or whole FSB, or Russia) recognized as terrorist organization by Russia or US or UK or EU or UN by 2030

Jul 13, 9:23 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

25.05%chance

52982

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3409

1209

Will there be another poisoning of someone attributed to Russia in another country before the end of 2030?

Mar 26, 6:34 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

87.12%chance

30749

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2491

1874

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