The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries left its forecast for global oil-demand growth in 2025 unchanged at 1.29 million barrels a day but lifted the 2026 increase to 1.38 million b/d, a 100,000-b/d upward revision. In its August Monthly Oil Market Report the group also cut its outlook for supply growth from producers outside the OPEC+ alliance next year to 630,000 b/d from 730,000 b/d and now anticipates a 100,000-b/d drop in U.S. tight-oil output, pointing to a tighter market balance. OPEC+ crude production averaged 41.94 million b/d in July, 335,000 b/d higher than in June yet still short of the 411,000 b/d quota increase agreed for the month. Saudi Arabia accounted for roughly half of the gain, raising its supply to the market to 9.53 million b/d. Unless more capacity is restored, OPEC’s data imply global oil inventories could fall by almost 1.2 million b/d in 2026. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook paints a softer picture. The agency projects world oil demand at 103.7 million b/d in 2025 and 104.9 million b/d in 2026, against global supply of 105.4 million b/d and 106.4 million b/d respectively. It expects U.S. crude output to reach a record 13.41 million b/d next year before edging down to 13.28 million b/d, and cut its average Brent price forecast to $67.22 a barrel for 2025 and $51.43 for 2026, citing anticipated inventory builds. The diverging assessments highlight uncertainty over how quickly the market will absorb additional OPEC+ barrels as the producer group unwinds its remaining cuts while lower prices curb U.S. drilling. Brent crude was trading near $66 a barrel after the reports’ release.