The International Energy Agency warned on 13 August that the world oil market is heading for its largest supply surplus on record in 2026 as demand growth cools and output from both OPEC+ and non-OPEC producers continues to climb. The agency said the imbalance could swell even if current supply curbs remain in place, raising the prospect of renewed pressure on prices and producer revenues. Crude futures fell after the report. Brent was trading around $66.15 a barrel while West Texas Intermediate hovered near $63.14 in early Asian dealings, surrendering gains made earlier in the week when an extension of the U.S.–China tariff pause briefly lifted sentiment. Further bearish signals came from Washington, where the U.S. Energy Information Administration projected Brent will average below $60 a barrel in the fourth quarter. Separately, industry data showed U.S. crude stockpiles rose by roughly 1.5 million barrels last week, a build that analysts said points to the end of peak summer driving demand. On the supply side, OPEC+ has raised its collective output targets, and preliminary Reuters calculations indicate Russia’s seaborne oil-product exports fell 6.6 % in July only because of refinery maintenance, suggesting volumes could rebound once plants restart. Together, the indicators underline mounting headwinds for prices ahead of a potential record surplus.