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Aug 15, 11:06 AM
S&P 500 Forward P/E at 22.5x Near Cycle High; Nasdaq Market Cap Hits 145% of M2 Money Supply
Economics
Stocks
Business

S&P 500 Forward P/E at 22.5x Near Cycle High; Nasdaq Market Cap Hits 145% of M2 Money Supply

Authors
  • Special Situations 🌐 Research Newsletter (Jay)
  • Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT πŸ–
  • Global Markets Investor
4

The S&P 500 is currently trading at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 22.5 times, placing it in the 95th percentile since 1988 and near cycle highs. The index's price-to-book value ratio has reached an all-time high of 5.3 times, driven largely by the technology sector, which comprises 34% of the index directly and 48% when including tech-related stocks. Within the S&P 100, 27.2% of the total market value is concentrated in stocks with P/E ratios of at least 50, while only one company has a P/E below 10. Excluding technology, the S&P 500's P/E remains elevated at 19.4 times, whereas the expanded tech sector trades at 29.9 times. The Nasdaq's market capitalization relative to the US M2 money supply has reached 145%, surpassing the peak seen during the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble. Additionally, the S&P 500's price-to-sales ratio hit a record 3.4 times, exceeding levels from 2021 and surpassing the Dot-Com Bubble peak by one point. These metrics indicate that the US equity market is trading at historically high valuations, particularly driven by the technology sector.

Written with ChatGPT (GPT-4).

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