stocks are up
April 8, 2025 still looks like the market bottom. Why? Every S&P 500 low in the past 35 years happened within 3 months of peak EPS estimate cuts. This cycle’s peak was Feb 28, 2025 at -3.41%. Cuts have now slowed to -1.71%, confirming the worst is likely over. $SPY https://t.co/nKvllTJW3M
"The S&P 500 is trading at 21 times earnings projected over the next 12 months, up from a low of 18 times in April and well above the average of 18.6 times over the past decade." @jwittenstein @RyanVlastelica https://t.co/5qRDRPIBuv
Global equity markets have reached elevated valuation levels in mid-2025, with the S&P 500 index trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of approximately 21 to 22.7, surpassing both its five-year average of around 19.9 and its ten-year average near 18.4. The trailing 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P 500 stands at 25.9, also above historical averages. This valuation places the S&P 500 near parity with 10-year bond yields, reflecting high market pricing. The global stock market, as measured by the MSCI ACWI index, is similarly expensive, trading at about 18.1 times forward earnings, above the 90th percentile historically, and has recently hit all-time highs. The increase in valuations follows a market bottom around April 8, 2025, which coincided with peak cuts in earnings per share (EPS) estimates for the S&P 500. Since then, EPS estimate reductions have slowed, suggesting that the worst phase of earnings revisions may be behind investors. Despite June historically being a volatile month for stocks, market sentiment remains positive with equities continuing to rise.