The S&P 500 Index (SPX) has experienced a sharp rebound following a selloff earlier in the year, with the Option Score rising from near zero to 5, indicating increased trader confidence. However, caution persists as open interest in out-of-the-money (OTM) put options has steadily climbed, reflecting investors hedging against potential downside risks despite underlying optimism. The SPX currently trades around 5606 to 5650, with key resistance levels at 5725 (0DTE call wall) and 5800, and put support at 5500 and 5200. Market positioning shows a bearish momentum with a put/call open interest ratio above 1.2 and negative gamma exposure, suggesting vulnerability to volatility spikes. Volatility surfaces for SPX and SPY show elevated implied volatility (IV) on short-dated puts, signaling heavy demand for downside protection, while longer-dated options indicate calmer conditions. The Nasdaq 100 (NDX) displays a flattening volatility smile with lower implied volatility compared to realized volatility, suggesting potential underpricing of risk. In the tech sector, large institutional call option purchases have been observed in major growth stocks including Nvidia (NVDA), Apple (AAPL), Broadcom (AVGO), Microsoft (MSFT), and Google (GOOGL). Notably, NVDA saw substantial call buying with over 7,700 in-the-money May 30 $100 calls purchased, and a large opening sale of 11,000 June $118 calls. Apple buyers acquired June 2027 $200 and $210 calls, while Broadcom had significant June 2027 $120 call flows. These long-term call purchases indicate bullish sentiment over the next 6 to 12 months. Despite the rally, volatility-focused funds remain cautious, with the Long/Short Volatility Barometer near its lowest level in over a year, implying thin participation. Market participants are advised to monitor upcoming Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech for potential impact on volatility and market direction.
$NVDA calls clear $6. Another banger. https://t.co/FBnJk4xpYw
$SPX kneejerk reaction to the 8ema. Still have the 50sma a little lower. Powell speaks in 20min. *NFA https://t.co/BNosejdHEH
$NVDA now pops off lows with over 7700 May 30th $100 ITM calls bought at $15.25 to $15.45 in large lots, over $11M and captures earnings 5/28, need to confirm if adds to OI