
Recent data concerning the S&P 500 ($SPX) options trading on Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) days reveals notable trends. Historically, the S&P has averaged a drop of 0.74% on Fed Days since Jerome Powell's first rate cut last year. Performance metrics from the last eight FOMC days indicate varied outcomes: March 2025 saw an increase of 0.89% during a pause, while December recorded a decline of 2.95% following a 25 basis points cut. Current options are pricing an implied move of +/- 1.1% for the upcoming FOMC day, consistent with the average realized movement observed during the last four FOMC events. Analysts suggest that the market may be preemptively reacting to these historical patterns ahead of the next announcement.
"SPX options are pricing a +/-1.1% move for FOMC day, in-line with the average realized move seen during the last 4 FOMC events." Goldman Sachs via ZeroHedge https://t.co/8Fx72SfTd2
SPX performance on FOMC days. Interesting data points https://t.co/zcGw5BU0A4
S&P 500 $SPY Performance on the Last 8 FOMC Days: 🟩MAR: +0.89% (Pause) 🟥MAY: -0.34% (Pause) 🟩JUNE: +0.82% (Pause) 🟩JULY: +1.63% (Pause) 🟥SEP: -0.34% (50bps Cut) 🟩NOV: +0.77% (25bps Cut) 🟥DEC: -2.95% (25bps Cut) 🟥JAN'25: -0.45% (Pause) 🤔MAR'25: Implied move +/- 1.5%


