Jun 9, 01:57 PM

S&P 500 Recovers in Record Time as VIX Hits 17.60, Recession Odds Drop to 26%, 10-Year Yield at 4.51%

The S&P 500 Index (SPX) is holding near its recent highs following a rapid recovery from a selloff, with the index completing a round-trip from decline to full recovery in under two months. This is the shortest volatility shock recovery on record, compared to previous episodes where equities typically took six to seven months to rebound and remained down nearly 10% at this stage. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has declined by 63% over the past nine weeks, the largest volatility drop on record. The VIX currently stands at 17.60, and the Long/Short Vol Barometer has reached multi-month lows, reflecting subdued demand for long volatility positions. US recession odds for 2025 have fallen to 26%, returning to levels last seen on Inauguration Day and near the lowest point of the year. The 10-year Treasury yield is at 4.51%. Despite the SPX's strong performance, CTA positioning is lagging, and systematic funds have yet to fully re-engage. Observers note that a shift in sentiment or volatility gauges could affect market risk appetite.

#CBOE Volatility Index #US #Inauguration Day

Written with ChatGPT (GPT-4).

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