The S&P 500 Index (SPX) is holding near its recent highs following a rapid recovery from a selloff, with the index completing a round-trip from decline to full recovery in under two months. This is the shortest volatility shock recovery on record, compared to previous episodes where equities typically took six to seven months to rebound and remained down nearly 10% at this stage. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has declined by 63% over the past nine weeks, the largest volatility drop on record. The VIX currently stands at 17.60, and the Long/Short Vol Barometer has reached multi-month lows, reflecting subdued demand for long volatility positions. US recession odds for 2025 have fallen to 26%, returning to levels last seen on Inauguration Day and near the lowest point of the year. The 10-year Treasury yield is at 4.51%. Despite the SPX's strong performance, CTA positioning is lagging, and systematic funds have yet to fully re-engage. Observers note that a shift in sentiment or volatility gauges could affect market risk appetite.
The SPX has round-tripped from selloff to full recovery in under 2 months -the shortest “vol shock” on record, according to DB. During prior vol shocks, equities would typically take 6/7 months to recover and usually at this stage the US gauge would still be down almost 10%.
This is crazy… The $VIX has declined 63% over the last 9 weeks, the biggest volatility crash in HISTORY 👀 (H/t @charliebilello) https://t.co/mriWzUwJWo
Recession odds for the U.S. 🇺🇸 in 2025 have dropped back down to around their lowest levels of the year—about where they were on Inauguration Day. https://t.co/WpDlXuzE9u