The S&P 500 Index (SPX) has been demonstrating strong support around the 6260-63 level, with positive gamma positioning playing a key role in sustaining this range during the options expiration (OPEX) week. The index has shown resilience, bouncing off the 6200 and 6260 gamma zones multiple times, with the futures contract ES_F holding above the weekly value area and approaching the 6300 level, a target noted for the upcoming OPEX Friday. Market participants have observed that dealers, being long gamma, have been compelled to buy intraday dips to manage delta exposure, effectively limiting downside risk even amid volatility concerns related to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. The 10-day realized volatility declined to 7.24 heading into OPEX, indicating subdued market turbulence. Semiconductor stocks, including Nvidia (NVDA) and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM), have contributed to the market's strength, supported by stabilizing conditions in China and the passing of recent CPI and PPI reports. Analysts expect any pullbacks in the near term to be shallow and short-lived, potentially around 4-5%, with a downside target for the SPY ETF near 595-600. Overall, liquidity remains supportive, and the market is positioned in a structurally favorable zone approximately 1.1% above the high volatility level of 6195, with a broadly bullish outlook as earnings season approaches.
Volume ratios staying strong to highs here now as $SPX nearing that big 6300 target been noting the past few days would be nice target into OPEX Friday
Based on option flows in some of the top names and overall positioning in SPX.. any pullback that comes into the next month is going to be shallow and short lived imo.. Maybe 4-5% if lucky which would target a move back to 595-600 $SPY but hard to get bearish at all on this
ES_F clearing above weekly value now and can see grind up into OPEX, often the Thursday before expiration is quite bullish as been sharing in seasonality notes