
The U.S. stock market is experiencing one of its weakest performances in decades in 2025, with the S&P 500 up just 1% year-to-date as of early June. This marks the third worst year for the index since 2010 and the largest underperformance relative to global equities in 32 years. International markets have significantly outperformed U.S. stocks. The MSCI ACWI ex-US index is up 14% year-to-date, resulting in a 12 to 13.6 percentage point gap in favor of non-U.S. equities. Developed international markets have gained 17% and emerging markets 9% over the same period. In May, the S&P 500 returned 6.3%, while Bitcoin led with an 11.1% gain, and the Nasdaq 100 rose 9.2%. Other assets such as gold and silver have also outperformed U.S. equities year-to-date, with gold up 25.3% and silver up 14.2%. The DAX index is up 20.5% in euro terms, while the Swiss MSCI and FTSE 100 have also posted strong gains. On a euro basis, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are both down 7.4%, and the CSI300 is down 8.9%. Despite U.S. equities delivering 14% year-over-year earnings growth, investor sentiment has shifted, and allocations to international equities remain low among U.S. investors, with only a 12% allocation compared to over 33% of global market capitalization. ETF flows indicate sector rotation within U.S. equities, with inflows to investment grade and industrials, and outflows from small caps and Treasuries. Macro hedge funds have reported their worst start to a year on record. The U.S. dollar has declined 7% year-to-date, and U.S. bonds have delivered modest gains. Other notable year-to-date moves include oil down 11%, small caps down 7%, cash up 2%, REITs up 1%, and volatility down 16.7%. The euro, Swiss franc, and Japanese yen have all appreciated against the dollar.
⚠️This is one of the WORST years for the US stock market in history: The S&P 500 has UNDERperformed World stocks excluding the US by 12 percentage points year-to-date, the most in 32 YEARS. This is even worse than during the Great Financial Crisis.. 👇 https://t.co/nPmwlbIOuh
🚨 Macro Hedge Funds Have Worst Start to a Year on Record https://t.co/L934oRUFnn
Looking at notional #ETF flows to monitor sector rotations within US Equities: currently the sectors experiencing the largest inflows compared to their averages include Investment Grade and Industrials, while outflows are being seen in Treasury and Small Cap. https://t.co/eoszUoDdqy





