Recent data and analyses reveal a downward revision of U.S. employment figures, indicating that non-farm payrolls were overstated by approximately 800,000 jobs over the nine months ending December 2024, averaging an overstatement of about 88,888 jobs per month. May and June 2025 job numbers were revised down by a combined 258,000, marking the second-largest downward revision in over 45 years. Employment indices across sectors signal contraction: the ISM Services PMI Employment index fell to 46.4 points, and the ISM Manufacturing Employment index dropped to 43.4 points in July, both reflecting levels comparable to recession periods such as the 2020 crisis and the Financial Crisis. Layoffs are at elevated levels, with over 806,000 job cut announcements year-to-date, including 62,075 in July alone, nearly triple the 2021-2024 average. Private sector hiring rates have declined to 3.6% in June, one of the lowest since 2020 and below rates seen during the 2001 recession. The three-month average change in payrolls has fallen to 35,000, the lowest outside the 2020 crisis in 15 years. The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) has decreased by 17.8%, the largest drop since the Financial Crisis, with a 4.0% year-over-year decline in June to an 11-year low, signaling recession conditions. A White House report alleges that employment figures were inflated by 1.5 million during President Biden's tenure. Youth unemployment is worsening, with rates for graduates aged 20-24 averaging 8.1% over the past three months, the highest in four years and consistent with recession levels, while unemployment for youth aged 16-24 reached 10.0%, the highest since May 2021. Computer science and computer engineering graduates aged 22 to 27 face unemployment rates of 6.1% and 7.5%, respectively, amid tech sector layoffs and increased AI adoption. Despite weaker job reports fueling recession fears, corporate earnings and other economic data present a more nuanced picture, and the number of companies citing recession in earnings calls has sharply declined from 124 in Q1 to 16 in Q2 2025.