
The bond market has seen significant movements recently, with the UK 10-year gilt yield rising by 46 basis points over the last month. In the US, the 10-year Treasury yield has increased by 45 basis points from a trough of 3.62% on September 16, reaching approximately 4.1%. This represents a 41% retracement of this year's rally, which began with a peak yield of 4.71% on April 25, according to HSBC's Steven Major. Additionally, Deutsche Bank has noted that the rise in the 5-year US inflation swap over the past five weeks has been the largest since early March 2023, just before the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. Analysts are speculating that the Federal Reserve's recent rate cut may have contributed to this renewed inflationary pressure.
DB “the rise in the 5yr US inflation swap over the last 5 weeks has been the biggest since early March 2023" 👀 https://t.co/LL1rkQFbUj
The 10-year yield is approaching 4.1% https://t.co/7SMlFLA6Gs
Musings of the Day, 10/14/24: DB's COTD: 5yr Inflation Swaps roofing - OOPS. I too have highlighted the same Supply Inelasticities (and more) + the dynamic of a Global Competitive Cutting Cycle as a result of Pusillanimous Powell's Premature Pivot. https://t.co/irtkmMTpXc https://t.co/6y9vAfPjiS




