The U.S. labor market slowed sharply in July, with nonfarm payrolls rising by just 73,000, well short of the 104,000 jobs economists had expected. The Bureau of Labor Statistics also reported that the unemployment rate edged up to 4.2 percent, its highest level since late 2021, while total employment reached 159.5 million. Much of the concern centers on revisions to earlier data. Payroll gains for May and June were reduced by a combined 258,000 positions, the steepest two-month downward adjustment recorded outside recessionary periods since the late 1960s. The cuts lowered June’s headline gain to 14,000 and May’s to 19,000, recasting what had appeared to be a resilient labor market. Analysts warn that more changes are likely. Goldman Sachs estimates the BLS’s annual benchmark update, due on September 9, could trim a further 550,000–950,000 jobs from the March 2025 level—equivalent to removing roughly 45,000–80,000 jobs from each month over the past year. The prospect of additional downward revisions, coupled with soft current hiring, is expected to factor into Federal Reserve deliberations over the coming months.
The July jobs report shows the economy added 73,000 jobs, with unemployment holding steady at 4.2%. While the stable unemployment rate might seem reassuring at first glance, the implications for job search success are more nuanced. https://t.co/hc3CkXYrSw https://t.co/qs6gsrMwwL
⚠️What is happening here? The US job numbers will likely be REVISED DOWN by nearly 800,000 for the 9-month period ending December 2024, according to QCEW data. This means non-farm payrolls were OVERSTATED by ~88,888 jobs each month during this period👇 https://t.co/hwEZwXkV6W
⚠️US hiring in the private sector is at RECESSION levels: The US private hiring rate fell to 3.6% in June, one of the lowest levels since the 2020 CRISIS. This is in line with the Financial Crisis levels and even BELOW the 2001 recession readings.👇 https://t.co/hwEZwXkV6W