
Recent analysis of the US bond and equity markets indicates potential risks for investors. The spread between the S&P 500’s forward earnings yield and the 10-year Treasury yield has reached a 23-year low, with the S&P 500 earnings yield currently at 3.7%. This figure is the lowest compared to Treasury yields since 2002, while the earnings yield is also at its lowest relative to corporate bond yields since 2008. Analysts warn that stocks are nearing their most overvalued position against corporate credit and Treasuries in approximately two decades. The US 10-year yield is approaching 5%, which raises concerns about a possible correction in the stock market. As bond yields have surged, the risk-reward profile for equities compared to Treasuries has turned negative for the first time in 23 years, suggesting that a significant correction may be imminent.







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