US inflation painted a mixed picture this week. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said consumer prices rose 0.2% in July and 2.7% from a year earlier, a touch below the 2.8% consensus. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.3% on the month and 3.1% annually, the highest reading since February but only slightly above forecasts. Wholesale prices, released two days later, were markedly stronger. The Producer Price Index jumped 0.9% in July—the largest monthly gain since June 2022—lifting the annual rate to 3.3% from 2.4% in June. Core PPI climbed to 3.7% year-on-year, also up 0.9% on the month, suggesting renewed cost pressures in the production pipeline despite the steadier consumer-price print. Labour-market data offered few signs of strain: initial jobless claims slipped to 224,000 in the week ended 9 August, while continuing claims fell to 1.95 million. Investors will watch Friday’s retail-sales report and the Federal Reserve’s meeting in mid-September, where policymakers must decide whether the sharp rebound in producer prices threatens the disinflation trend that had supported expectations for a rate cut.
Well, that’s not good… • PPI: 3.3% YoY vs. 2.5% est. • PPI: 0.9% MoM vs. 0.2% est. • Core PPI: 3.7% YoY vs. 3.0% est. • Core PPI: 0.9% MoM vs. 0.2% est. https://t.co/yt5I4DcXDJ
So much for foreigners paying tariffs. If they did PPI would be falling. Wholesale prices up 3.3% from a year ago & 3.7% in the core. The temperature is definitely rising in the core. This implies a hot PCE reading lies ahead. https://t.co/iy3V1Prvfc
Headline PPI MoM print jumped by most since June 2022 https://t.co/fJ0C2IeYJ6 https://t.co/P545wWBm7V