The US stock market has reached unprecedented valuation levels, surpassing those seen during the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble and the 1929 pre-Great Depression period. The Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio on the S&P 500 hit 38.7x, the highest since the Dot-Com Bubble burst, compared to a long-term average of 17.6x. The S&P 500 price-to-sales ratio reached a record 3.4x, exceeding the 2000 peak. The technology sector is notably overvalued, with the S&P 500 Technology Sector price-to-sales ratio hitting 10x, surpassing the 7.8x peak of 2000. The NASDAQ market capitalization relative to US GDP hit an all-time high of 127%, nearly double the Dot-Com Bubble peak, and relative to US M2 money supply reached 176%, well above the 135% peak in 2000. The overall US stock market capitalization to GDP ratio surged to a record 211%, rising 45 percentage points in three months, far exceeding the 144% peak in 2000. NVIDIA's market capitalization now accounts for 3.6% of global GDP and 13.4% of US GDP, exceeding the entire markets of the UK, France, and Germany, and is just under $1 trillion below the Japanese stock market, the world's second largest. US margin debt also hit a record $1.02 trillion, increasing by $14.6 billion last month and more than $100 billion over two months. Meanwhile, the US federal debt has surged by $1 trillion in 48 days, reaching $37.2 trillion from $35.2 trillion a year ago, and is projected to cross $40 trillion by January 2027. Despite these extreme valuations, the US market has underperformed global ex-US markets by the widest margin in 16 years year-to-date.
🚨 This is truly STRIKING: The NASDAQ market cap relative to US GDP has hit 127%, an ALL-TIME RECORD. The ratio has risen ~50 percentage points since the 2022 bear market low. This is almost TWICE the level seen at the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble peak👇 https://t.co/bpfwTj6WR4
U.S. STOCK MARKET REACHES MOST EXPENSIVE VALUATION EVER — SURPASSES DOT-COM BUBBLE AND PRE-GREAT DEPRESSION LEVELS
🚨 Why are most investors IGNORING this? The US market is the most OVERVALUED relative to global ex-US in 30+ years. Not even during the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble was the valuation gap this wide. YTD, the US is UNDERperforming by the most in 16 years.👇 https://t.co/bpfwTj6WR4