The US stock market is exhibiting unprecedented valuation levels, surpassing peaks seen during the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble and reaching records not observed in financial history. The NASDAQ market capitalization relative to US GDP hit a record 127%, nearly doubling since the 2022 bear market and exceeding the Dot-Com peak by approximately 40 percentage points. The overall US stock market capitalization to GDP ratio reached 211%, rising 45 percentage points in the last three months, well above the 144% peak during the Dot-Com era. Valuation metrics for the S&P 500 have also hit new highs, with the Price-to-Book ratio at 5.3x, Price-to-Sales ratio at 3.4x, and the Shiller P/E ratio at 38.7x, the highest since the Dot-Com Bubble burst. The S&P 500 forward P/E ratio stands at 22.5x, one of the highest in 35 years, while the technology sector's Price-to-Sales ratio hit 10x, surpassing the 7.8x peak in 2000. Globally, the Information Technology sector in the MSCI World index has a 12-month forward P/E ratio of 27-28x, among the most expensive readings in two decades. Notably, NVIDIA's market capitalization now represents 3.6% of global GDP and 13.4% of US GDP, exceeding the market sizes of the UK, France, or Germany. Combined valuation metrics including P/E, forward P/E, CAPE, P/B, EV/EBITDA, Q Ratio, and market cap-to-GDP have reached levels not seen since 1929 before the Great Depression. Despite these stretched valuations, Howard Marks, co-chairman of Oaktree Capital Management, cautions that the market is in the early stages of a bubble similar to the late 1990s. He advises increased portfolio defense, suggesting a shift from equities to credit investments, but does not foresee an imminent correction. Marks highlights that while valuations are high relative to fundamentals, the critical point for a market downturn has not yet arrived.
HOWARD MARKS: “TIME FOR CAUTION” After such a long bull run, this is the moment to be cautious. Shifting from equities to credit puts real defense in your portfolio. Oaktree has always focused on credit. Debt is inherently more defensive than equities. https://t.co/XGUUDeCmfO
🚨 US technology stocks have been this expensive only at the final stages of the Dot-Com Bubble: Combined valuations of US tech stocks have reached their highest level since the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble burst. Big Tech is priced for perfection — there is no margin left for error. https://t.co/KSpUsiehRK
HOWARD MARKS: "WE’RE IN THE EARLY STAGES OF A BUBBLE” Investors don’t just buy stocks. They start liking them. Then they love them. That’s how bubbles form. We’re probably in the early innings of one right now. https://t.co/MUbIKXBMfd