$TLT continues to be Put bias. 90.32% 3 Month Percentile. https://t.co/GHG5kal1sf
Buyer 2007 $TLT 8/29/2025 $91 calls for $1.02 Another size bet, bonds have bottomed
QQQ 1M skew spikes to the 92nd percentile, deep in put bias territory—risk reversals show aggressive demand for downside protection despite stable price action. https://t.co/XYGmDJRewV
The US Treasury conducted a buyback of $2 billion in 20-year to 30-year nominal bonds between 1:40 pm and 2:00 pm ET on May 29, 2025. Market activity around long-term US Treasury bonds (TLT) indicates a strong interest in downside protection and a belief that bond prices may have bottomed. Notably, a large call option trade was executed with 25,000 contracts of $TLT 9/19/2025 $93 calls valued at approximately $2.2 million, suggesting bullish sentiment on bond prices. Additional sizable call option purchases include 14,000 June 27th $89.50 in-the-money puts being sold to open and 2,007 $TLT 8/29/2025 $91 calls bought for $1.02 each. The options market shows a persistent put bias, with the QQQ 1-month skew holding firm in put-biased territory around the 64.5% to 90.32% three-month percentile range, and risk reversals reflecting steady to aggressive demand for downside protection despite stable price action. Retail investors have also demonstrated increased buying of $TLT, and technical analysis suggests a potential triple bottom formation for the bond ETF. Overall, these indicators point to hedging activity and a cautious but optimistic outlook on long-term US Treasury bonds amid current market conditions.
