The US 30-year Treasury yield rose to 5.01% on July 15, 2025, marking its highest level since late May and the first time it crossed 5% since early June. This peak was followed by a decline in Treasury yields over the subsequent weeks. By late July, the 30-year yield had dropped to around 4.86%, the lowest since July 11. The 10-year Treasury yield also decreased, falling to 4.37% by late July and continuing down to a five-week low of 4.241% by August 1. The two-year Treasury yield experienced notable volatility, initially rising to 3.94% in late July, then dropping sharply after weaker US payroll data. On August 1, the two-year yield fell 20 basis points to 3.76%, marking its largest single-day decline in a year and reaching its lowest level since June 30 at 3.717%. The decline in yields was driven by softer US jobs data, which increased market expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts as soon as September. The drop in short-term yields, especially the two-year notes, reflected a shift toward a risk-off market regime and growing anticipation of monetary easing by the Fed.