The US Treasury market has experienced a significant surge in volatility, with the MOVE Index, which measures the implied volatility of the bond market, reaching its highest levels since the beginning of the year. This spike in volatility is attributed to traders rethinking their interest rate bets, particularly in anticipation of the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) data release. Traders are now betting on a more gradual pace of Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts. The VIX Index, measuring the implied volatility of the stock market, also saw a notable increase, spiking 18% on the same day as the MOVE Index's 24% rise to 124. This unusual simultaneous spike in both indices suggests heightened market uncertainty. US Treasury yields have risen as traders have abandoned bets on additional Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts for this year.
US Treasury yields rose as traders nixed bets on additional Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts this year ahead of inflation data to be released on Thursday. https://t.co/z4VLSyjmHT
Y'all the VIX is above 20 with stocks near highs because the VIX's 23-37 day implied vol range is catching election week hedges Nothing more nefarious than that https://t.co/5yU5B0PPvD
Bond market worries of post-election panic... The #MOVE Index measures the Implied Volatility of a constant one-month bond option. On Monday the election fell into this 30-day window. This jumped the MOVE from 100 to 124 The market is bracing for an 18bp rate change on the… https://t.co/jSNo5LzRMf