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Top stories
Prediction markets for Bari
Will the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran fall by 2030?
Dec 16, 2:35 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM
23.13%chance
212377727
OptionVotes
1824
549
Will AI be able to rewrite the Linux Kernel from scratch in Rust, mostly autonomously, by EOY 2030?
Jan 2, 2:49 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM
79.55%chance
599086
OptionVotes
1972
507
OptionProbability
100
92
52
20
17
13
Which people will Tyler Cowen invite to his Conversations podcast in 2026?
Dec 24, 4:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
214386
OptionProbability
100
100
100
50
50
37
34
34
25
24
23
22
21
20
20
20
19
16
15
15
15
14
13
13
12
12
12
12
11
11
11
11
10
10
10
10
10
9
9
9
8
8
8
8
7
7
7
6
6
6
5
0
Bari Weiss remains CBS News editor-in-chief through 2026?
Oct 22, 10:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
88.59%chance
122334
OptionVotes
2787
359
OptionProbability
100
100
100
83
76
71
71
65
61
61
59
57
55
55
55
52
52
52
52
50
50
50
48
43
40
40
31
27
Purchased Kindle eBooks censored or blocked before 2030.
Jun 18, 7:52 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM
67.38%chance
241466
OptionVotes
1437
696
Did Netanyahu knowingly receive money from the Qatari government?
Mar 19, 11:52 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM
82.13%chance
71206
OptionVotes
2144
466
Coinflip of the century (experiment in prediction markets, read description)
Dec 18, 5:20 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM
50%chance
26460
OptionVotes
100
100
Will Bari Weiss run for public office before the end of 2045?
Feb 15, 4:09 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
22.63%chance
594
OptionVotes
185
54