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Prediction markets for Bern
WIll Dr Jonathan Sackner Bernstein (Parkinson's researcher) win a major medicine/biology award by mid 2036
Jun 23, 5:05 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM
9.14%chance
421858
OptionVotes
31528
3172
OptionVotes
6261
797
Alaska Governor election: Bernadette Wilson vote percent (1st Round)
Oct 27, 12:24 AMNov 3, 2:00 PM
53131
OptionProbability
99
99
94
93
91
89
75
25
11
6
Will Bernie Sanders cease to be a US Senator before the end of 2026?
Jan 1, 4:35 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
7.28%chance
113102
OptionVotes
3569
280
Will Bernie Sanders cease to be a US Senator before 2030?
Dec 16, 6:01 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
43.94%chance
512914
OptionVotes
1337
491
OptionProbability
30
18
18
15
9
8
2
Will Bernie Sanders live to see a human walk on the moon again?
Mar 24, 6:21 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
48.59%chance
461944
OptionVotes
1117
837
Who will Bernie Sanders endorse for president in 2028 dem primary?
Dec 21, 12:19 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
241222
OptionProbability
48
15
13
12
3
3
3
2
1
0
Will Bernie Sanders officially run for president in 2028?
Jun 10, 5:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
5.76%chance
6862
OptionVotes
1712
942
Will Egan Bernal win another Grand Tour in his career?
Jun 18, 6:40 PMJan 12, 10:59 PM
4.35%chance
6441
OptionVotes
469
21
OptionVotes
510
20
Will "On today's panel with Bernie Sanders" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Apr 30, 9:27 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
15.81%chance
8264
OptionVotes
1020
884
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