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Prediction markets for Best Chance
Will good quality personalised AI novels be instantly and cheaply available by the end of 2027?
Jun 27, 3:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
44.44%chance
15835470
OptionVotes
1721
1121
Will the best public LLM at the end of 2025 solve more than 5 of the first 10 Project Euler problems published in 2026?
Oct 26, 10:09 PMFeb 2, 7:59 AM
75.11%chance
2811608
OptionVotes
1225
836
OptionVotes
2438
1224
Will ANY DeepSeek model cause or materially enable a catastrophic risk by 2027?
Jan 21, 11:42 PMJan 29, 4:59 AM
7.29%chance
507901
OptionVotes
5386
489
Will r1 or v3 cause or materially enable a catastrophic risk by 2027?
Jan 21, 11:41 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
2.98%chance
366279
OptionVotes
5703
175
Will Republicans abolish the filibuster before the end of 2028?
Apr 8, 12:37 PMJan 10, 5:59 AM
12.3%chance
214916
OptionVotes
5015
4904
Will at least 20% of Western democracies cease to be de facto democratic by 2034?
Jun 13, 5:56 PMMar 2, 7:59 AM
19.48%chance
473270
OptionVotes
1182
928
Will GPT-5 be able to GM a session of my custom TTRPG to my satisfaction?
Jun 11, 9:36 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
22.97%chance
252531
OptionVotes
1831
546
Is the preprint suggesting Betelgeuse supernova within decades correct?
Jun 20, 12:28 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
8.7%chance
161969
OptionVotes
1919
765
Will GPT-5 be able to get gold on the International Mathematical Olympiad?
Mar 4, 1:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
16.35%chance
211834
OptionVotes
987
811
Will there be a child polymath of unprecedented talent before 2045?
Aug 5, 8:33 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
24.95%chance
81205
OptionVotes
1734
577
OptionVotes
1835
557
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