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Burj Khalifa News

    Prediction markets for Burj Khalifa

    World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]

    Jun 25, 3:43 PMDec 31, 5:59 PM
    18166973

    OptionProbability

    Iran and Israel both sign (or publicly accept) a written cease-fire or peace agreement, and no lethal exchange of fire between their regular forces occurs for the following 30 consecutive days

    A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Israel

    Thailand's Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra resigns

    Government official from Mexico attends the 2025 BRICS Summit

    Iran - Israel War ends in 2025 (ceasefire last at least 90 days (September 22, 2025) or peace deal is signed)

    A new non-majority Muslim (according to CIA Factbook) state becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

    ≥ 25 fatalities in Cambodia-Thailand border clashes

    DRC & Rwanda sign USA-brokered peace agreement

    ≥ 1,500 Palestinians killed near Gaza aid hubs

    Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire in 2025

    Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire before October 1, 2025

    Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ceasefire is broken

    Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash reignites (fighting resumes)

    Indonesia becomes a member of BRICS

    World leader of 20m+ population country is assassinated

    United States government arrests president Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela

    Saudi Arabia prices oil exports to China in Yuan (CNY)

    India's 2026-2027 Defence Budget exceeds ₹7.5 lakh crore

    A new cease-fire between Iran and United States OR Israel is declared post Feb 28, 2026

    United States troops enter Iran

    Donald Trump and Iran work out a "deal" to cease hostilities (even temporarily)

    Benjamin Netanyahu alive as of April 30, 2026

    Russia remains a permanent member of UN Security Council

    Xi Jinping remains General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party

    Kim Jong Un remains General Secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea (or equivalent title)

    Vladimir Putin remains President of Russia

    Donald Trump remains President of USA

    Claudia Sheinbaum remains President of Mexico

    An armed non-state group captures and holds the capital city of a UN-recognised state for ≥72 hours

    Volodymyr Zelenskyy remains President of Ukraine

    Ukraine - Russia War halted by Ceasefire

    Confirmed overflight of US Military aircraft over Cuba

    At any point more than 5,000 USA National Guard Troops domestically deployed

    Algeria becomes a member of BRICS

    Min Aung Hlaing ceases to serve as either (a) Chairman of the State Administration Council or (b) Commander-in-Chief of the Myanmar Armed Forces

    Iran and Israel agree to a Cease Fire

    A cyber-attack officially attributed to a foreign state actor causes ≥US $1 billion in insured losses to a single country

    123

    Hostile military action by United States against Cuba

    USA and Iran agree to a new cease fire post April 10, 2026

    North Korea conducts a nuclear weapons test

    A 5th-generation fighter jet is confirmed to have been destroyed in air/shot down (not including being damaged from an airfield bombing)

    A drone attacks a head of state (hits or lands within 30 meters)

    A country declares war on Israel

    A state shoot-down of a spacecraft or satellite in orbit is publicly confirmed

    At least 5,000 uniformed personnel belonging to a UN-Security-Council-authorized security or peace-keeping mission are physically deployed in Haiti

    A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Iran

    Nigeria becomes a member of BRICS

    Oil prices reach $150 USD a barrel

    Benjamin Netanyahu remains Prime Minister of Israel

    A new ceasefire between Israel and Gaza is announced by Donald Trump

    A peace treaty ending the Ethiopia–Tigray conflict is signed and remains unbroken for 90 days

    Ukraine - Russia War ends with a peace treaty

    Azerbaijan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

    Iran undergoes a regime change

    Turkey invokes NATO Article 4 consultations

    Autonomous lethal drones (no human on the kill-decision loop) are acknowledged by any state to have been used in combat

    The U.S. suffers ≥50 combat fatalities in a single new overseas operation—defined as a country where no U.S. combat deaths occurred in 2024

    Russia sells or scraps it's only aircraft carrier; the Admiral Kuznetsov

    Any country leaves NATO

    A head of state from a G20 country is assassinated

    Russian armed forces intentionally attack uniformed personnel or sovereign assets of any NATO member state, or vice-versa

    Kazakhstan becomes a member of BRICS

    North Korea provides missile(s) to Iran

    Non-PSUV candidate inaugurated as next President of Venezuela

    China declares an air- or maritime-exclusion zone covering any part of Taiwan’s territorial sea or airspace

    Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Europe

    1+ deaths attributed to a rogue AI

    Trump, Putin, & Zelensky meet together in the same room

    Izz al-Din al-Haddad remains leader of Hamas

    USA performs military action (troops/special forces deployed or airstrike/missile strike) in Mexico resulting in confirmed deaths

    An armed clash between India and Pakistan results in ≥100 military fatalities in a 7-day period

    Vladimir Putin is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

    Any NATO country formally declares war on another country

    Saudi Arabia becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

    Iran ceases to exist as a sovereign nation

    160 UN Nations simultaneously officially regonize Palestine's statehood.

    Any signatory of the CTBT tests a nuclear weapon

    A country declares war on United States

    The IAEA publicly reports that Iran possesses uranium enriched to ≥90 % U-235

    Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United States

    At least three sovereign states outside NATO, EU, ANZUS, or the Quad sign a formal mutual-defence treaty deposited with the UN Treaty Series

    Any EU member invokes Article 42 (7) of the Treaty on European Union in response to an armed attack

    Successful military coup in Venezuela

    Uniformed armed forces in any G20 member state attempt to seize executive power from the constitutional head of government

    Japan launches a domestically-built intermediate-range ballistic missile (>3 000 km advertised range) test

    Mexico becomes a member of BRICS

    Bangladesh becomes a member of BRICS

    Syria becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

    China invades Taiwan

    United States formally declares war on Iran

    Sudanese Civil War ends

    Iraq becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

    A leader of a country is tried and executed by a UN recognized state.

    Jordan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

    Libya becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

    North Korea - South Korea results in any civilian deaths

    China formally declares war on another country

    Egypt formally declares war on another country

    Iran loses territory

    A nation officially announces AGI has been achieved

    An armed clash in the Shaksgam Valley between India & China resulting in ≥10 fatalities in a 7-day period

    The Arctic Council is formally suspended or dissolved by unanimous vote

    Azerbaijani troops enter Iran

    Venezuela becomes a member of BRICS

    Any hostile military forces are deployed on Israeli soil

    A vessel larger than 50,000 deadweight tons is damaged or sunk by a naval mine in the Strait of Hormuz

    China becomes militarily involved in Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash

    A country announces magnetic-fusion net-positive energy

    Benjamin Netanyahu is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

    Armenia undergoes a regime change as the result of a military coup

    Israel loses territory

    USA leaves NATO

    Ukraine ceases to exist as a sovereign state

    Iranian troops enter Israel

    United Kingdom formally states intention to begin process to reverse "Brexit"

    Lebanon becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

    United Nations Security Council adopts (i.e., passes without veto) a formal resolution that explicitly condemns Israel’s use of lethal force against civilians seeking humanitarian aid in Gaza or demands Israel cease such force

    Burj Khalifa destroyed via hostile action

    India's Prime Minister Modi steps down or announces a successor

    The Government of Denmark publicly acknowledges receipt of a formal written offer from Donald J. Trump or his officially empowered representatives to transfer sovereignty over Greenland to the United States

    Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Canada

    Palestine is granted full United Nations Membership

    Bashar Al-Assad is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

    World Health Organization (WHO) declares a Chikungunya virus pandemic

    United States formally declares war on another country

    United States Military personnel deaths greater than or equal to 15 in Israel borders during 2026

    Any current G-20 member state ceases to be listed as a United Nations Member State

    Argentina becomes a member of BRICS

    Iran becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

    Qatar becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

    At least one nuclear explosive device is detonated with the intent to harm a state’s armed forces or civilian population

    Ukraine becomes a formal NATO member

    Israel annexes 100% of Gaza

    Donald Trump is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

    Saudi Arabia signs a written, mutual-defence pact with China or Russia

    Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United Kingdom

    Israel conducts military operation in Cyprus

    Major News sources consistently identify a conflict as WWIII

    Any Canadian territory becomes part of US territory

    Kim Jong Un is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

    Two states engage in a nuclear exchange (both attempt to deliver a nuclear device within the borders of the other)

    Israel annexes any portion of Iran

    Any United States of America state formally states intent to begin process to secede

    Whole of Greenland becomes USA territory

    Alberta begins process of becoming a USA state

    Any US territory comes under Canadian administration

    Extraterrestrials making contact with earth is widely acknowledged

    Humans will extinct

    Israel ceases to exist as a sovereign nation

    Yahya Sinwar is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

    100

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    97

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    86

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    75

    67

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    58

    54

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    7

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    3

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    1

    0

    OptionProbability

    Crewed mission to Phobos

    USA adds 52nd state

    UK has a queen again

    24th Doctor Who regenerates into the 25th

    President with Green Eyes elected

    Olympics hosted in Japan again

    RSA-2048 cracked

    African company or country lands on moon

    ChatGPT 10 releases

    Harlem Globetrotters lose again

    2000 Pokemon Released or franchise ceases

    Batman enters the public domain

    Room temperature superconductor discovered

    The Beatles music enters the public domain

    Japan Bans Whaling

    Human walks on mars

    Hershey's reintroduces the Gold bar

    Tom Scott's This Video Has X Views hits 1B

    human dies on the moon

    Tom Scott's This Video Has X Views hits 500M

    Pokemon Card sells for $10M

    Olympics hosted in Africa

    Pickleball in the Olympics

    Norway Bans Whaling

    First hispanic USA president

    Longest suspension bridge record broken

    Team Fortress 3 releases

    Country claims the Bir Tawil triangle

    End support date for Windows 12

    Grand Theft Auto 7 releases

    USA fully ends embargo on Cuba

    USA Adds 51st state

    The first $10T market cap company

    The next 9.0 magnitude earthquake

    Superman enters the public domain

    Iceland Bans Whaling

    The version after Windows 12 releases

    EU reaches 30 member states

    Centennial Lightbulb burns out

    Underwater hold breath world record broken

    First asian USA president (as judged by self ID & manifold opinion after inauguration)

    Bugs Bunny enters public domain

    Windows 11 end support date

    Grimace Shake returns to McDonalds

    Sitting USA president visits Belize for the first time

    Peppa Pig ends

    19th Doctor Who regenerates into 20th

    Destiny retires from regular streaming

    Bitcoin reaches $200K USD

    Taika Waititi's Star Wars film releases

    India hosts the Olympics

    China invades Taiwan or resolves conflict

    1500 Pokemon Released

    Star Citizen releases or company ceases

    Family Guy ends

    Civilization 8 releases

    Kingdom Hearts 4 releases

    First female USA president

    Two grand slams in one MLB game by one player again

    South Park ends

    Manifold reaches 20K MAU

    ChatGPT 7 releases

    Chicago ends on Broadway

    Simpsons ends

    Xi no longer in power in China

    James Cameron's Avatar 4 releases

    Human walks on moon again

    Another MLB perfect game pitched

    Blood Meridian movie release

    Burj Khalifa record for tallest building broken

    1300 Pokemon Released

    Trump Dies

    Book of Mormon ends on Broadway

    Uber OR Lyft bankrupt / acquired / ceases

    Manifold reaches 40K MAU

    USA's Doris Miller aircraft carrier launched

    Half Life 3 releases

    a USA president impeached again

    One piece manga ends

    Skibidi Toilet ends

    Bitcoin reaches $150K USD

    Another Five Nights at Freddy's movie comes out

    Putin no longer in power in Russia

    First Trillionaire (USD)

    marijuana no longer federally a schedule 1 drug in the USA

    Russia / Ukraine conflict ceasefire

    Shrek 5 releases

    Sagrada Familia Church completed

    Grand Theft Auto 6 releases

    Twitter gets a new CEO after Linda Yaccarino (or ceases operations)

    ChatGPT 6 releases

    Human runs official marathon under 2h

    Price of gold hits $5000/oz

    The first $5T market cap company

    USA discontinues or changes penny coin

    Death Stranding 2 releases

    First $100B revenue media franchise

    New Pope after Francis

    Civilization 7 releases

    Bitcoin reaches $100K USD

    Mario 64 120star speedrun WR 1h36m00s or less

    Dallas Mavericks play in the NBA championship

    Sweden joins NATO

    82

    78

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    9

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    5

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    3

    2

    1

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1535

    863

    OptionProbability

    2030

    2029

    Other

    2031

    Demolished

    2028

    2027

    25

    24

    17

    15

    10

    8

    2

    OptionProbability

    Tokyo Tower, Tokyo

    Abeno Harukas, Osaka

    Tsūtenkaku, Osaka

    22 Bishopsgate, London

    Tokyo Skytree, Tokyo

    Sunshine 60, Tokyo

    Eiffel Tower, Paris

    The Shard, London

    Osaka Prefectural Government Sakishima Building, Osaka

    Roppongi Hills Mori Tower, Tokyo

    Bunkyo Civic Center, Tokyo

    Tokyo Metropolitan Government Building, Tokyo

    Vilnius TV Tower, Vilnius

    Burj Khalifa, Dubai

    100

    100

    100

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    42

    34

    2

    By 2035 will any building surpass the height of the Burj Khalifa?

    Apr 25, 5:27 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
    54.29%chance
    596

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    116

    97

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    153

    142

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