OptionProbability
Iran and Israel both sign (or publicly accept) a written cease-fire or peace agreement, and no lethal exchange of fire between their regular forces occurs for the following 30 consecutive days
A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Israel
Thailand's Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra resigns
Government official from Mexico attends the 2025 BRICS Summit
Iran - Israel War ends in 2025 (ceasefire last at least 90 days (September 22, 2025) or peace deal is signed)
A new non-majority Muslim (according to CIA Factbook) state becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
≥ 25 fatalities in Cambodia-Thailand border clashes
DRC & Rwanda sign USA-brokered peace agreement
≥ 1,500 Palestinians killed near Gaza aid hubs
Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire in 2025
Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire before October 1, 2025
Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ceasefire is broken
Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash reignites (fighting resumes)
Indonesia becomes a member of BRICS
World leader of 20m+ population country is assassinated
United States government arrests president Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela
India's 2026-2027 Defence Budget exceeds ₹7.5 lakh crore
Russia remains a permanent member of UN Security Council
Kim Jong Un remains General Secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea (or equivalent title)
Xi Jinping remains General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party
Benjamin Netanyahu alive as of April 31, 2026
Vladimir Putin remains President of Russia
Claudia Sheinbaum remains President of Mexico
United States troops enter Iran
Donald Trump remains President of USA
A new cease-fire between Iran and United States OR Israel is declared post Feb 28, 2026
An armed non-state group captures and holds the capital city of a UN-recognised state for ≥72 hours
Volodymyr Zelenskyy remains President of Ukraine
China declares an air- or maritime-exclusion zone covering any part of Taiwan’s territorial sea or airspace
Ukraine - Russia War halted by Ceasefire
Confirmed overflight of US Military aircraft over Cuba
Algeria becomes a member of BRICS
A cyber-attack officially attributed to a foreign state actor causes ≥US $1 billion in insured losses to a single country
At any point more than 5,000 USA National Guard Troops domestically deployed
Saudi Arabia prices oil exports to China in Yuan (CNY)
Autonomous lethal drones (no human on the kill-decision loop) are acknowledged by any state to have been used in combat
Min Aung Hlaing ceases to serve as either (a) Chairman of the State Administration Council or (b) Commander-in-Chief of the Myanmar Armed Forces
Donald Trump and Iran work out a "deal" to cease hostilities (even temporarily)
123
The U.S. suffers ≥50 combat fatalities in a single new overseas operation—defined as a country where no U.S. combat deaths occurred in 2024
North Korea conducts a nuclear weapons test
A 5th-generation fighter jet is confirmed to have been destroyed in air/shot down (not including being damaged from an airfield bombing)
A drone attacks a head of state (hits or lands within 30 meters)
A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Iran
A country declares war on Israel
At least 5,000 uniformed personnel belonging to a UN-Security-Council-authorized security or peace-keeping mission are physically deployed in Haiti
Russia sells or scraps it's only aircraft carrier; the Admiral Kuznetsov
Nigeria becomes a member of BRICS
USA performs military action (troops/special forces deployed or airstrike/missile strike) in Mexico resulting in confirmed deaths
Hostile military action by United States against Cuba
Ukraine - Russia War ends with a peace treaty
Iran undergoes a regime change
Benjamin Netanyahu remains Prime Minister of Israel
A new ceasefire between Israel and Gaza is announced by Donald Trump
Russian armed forces intentionally attack uniformed personnel or sovereign assets of any NATO member state, or vice-versa
A peace treaty ending the Ethiopia–Tigray conflict is signed and remains unbroken for 90 days
Azerbaijan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Turkey invokes NATO Article 4 consultations
A head of state from a G20 country is assassinated
North Korea provides missile(s) to Iran
Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Europe
Kazakhstan becomes a member of BRICS
Izz al-Din al-Haddad remains leader of Hamas
Non-PSUV candidate inaugurated as next President of Venezuela
1+ deaths attributed to a rogue AI
Trump, Putin, & Zelensky meet together in the same room
An armed clash between India and Pakistan results in ≥100 military fatalities in a 7-day period
Vladimir Putin is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
Any NATO country formally declares war on another country
Uniformed armed forces in any G20 member state attempt to seize executive power from the constitutional head of government
Saudi Arabia becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
160 UN Nations simultaneously officially regonize Palestine's statehood.
Any signatory of the CTBT tests a nuclear weapon
The IAEA publicly reports that Iran possesses uranium enriched to ≥90 % U-235
Syria becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United States
A country declares war on United States
A state shoot-down of a spacecraft or satellite in orbit is publicly confirmed
At least three sovereign states outside NATO, EU, ANZUS, or the Quad sign a formal mutual-defence treaty deposited with the UN Treaty Series
Any EU member invokes Article 42 (7) of the Treaty on European Union in response to an armed attack
Any country leaves NATO
Successful military coup in Venezuela
Japan launches a domestically-built intermediate-range ballistic missile (>3 000 km advertised range) test
Mexico becomes a member of BRICS
Bangladesh becomes a member of BRICS
China invades Taiwan
United States formally declares war on Iran
Sudanese Civil War ends
Iraq becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
A vessel larger than 50,000 deadweight tons is damaged or sunk by a naval mine in the Strait of Hormuz
A leader of a country is tried and executed by a UN recognized state.
Libya becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
North Korea - South Korea results in any civilian deaths
China formally declares war on another country
Egypt formally declares war on another country
Iran loses territory
Azerbaijani troops enter Iran
A nation officially announces AGI has been achieved
The Arctic Council is formally suspended or dissolved by unanimous vote
Venezuela becomes a member of BRICS
China becomes militarily involved in Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash
An armed clash in the Shaksgam Valley between India & China resulting in ≥10 fatalities in a 7-day period
A country announces magnetic-fusion net-positive energy
Benjamin Netanyahu is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
Armenia undergoes a regime change as the result of a military coup
Ukraine ceases to exist as a sovereign state
Israel loses territory
Iranian troops enter Israel
United Kingdom formally states intention to begin process to reverse "Brexit"
United Nations Security Council adopts (i.e., passes without veto) a formal resolution that explicitly condemns Israel’s use of lethal force against civilians seeking humanitarian aid in Gaza or demands Israel cease such force
Any hostile military forces are deployed on Israeli soil
USA leaves NATO
India's Prime Minister Modi steps down or announces a successor
Burj Khalifa destroyed via hostile action
Jordan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Canada
Palestine is granted full United Nations Membership
Bashar Al-Assad is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
World Health Organization (WHO) declares a Chikungunya virus pandemic
United States formally declares war on another country
United States Military personnel deaths greater than or equal to 15 in Israel borders during 2026
Argentina becomes a member of BRICS
The Government of Denmark publicly acknowledges receipt of a formal written offer from Donald J. Trump or his officially empowered representatives to transfer sovereignty over Greenland to the United States
Any current G-20 member state ceases to be listed as a United Nations Member State
Qatar becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
At least one nuclear explosive device is detonated with the intent to harm a state’s armed forces or civilian population
Ukraine becomes a formal NATO member
Israel annexes 100% of Gaza
Donald Trump is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
Saudi Arabia signs a written, mutual-defence pact with China or Russia
Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United Kingdom
Israel conducts military operation in Cyprus
Lebanon becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Major News sources consistently identify a conflict as WWIII
Kim Jong Un is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
Iran becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Two states engage in a nuclear exchange (both attempt to deliver a nuclear device within the borders of the other)
Israel annexes any portion of Iran
Any United States of America state formally states intent to begin process to secede
Any Canadian territory becomes part of US territory
Whole of Greenland becomes USA territory
Alberta begins process of becoming a USA state
Any US territory comes under Canadian administration
Extraterrestrials making contact with earth is widely acknowledged
Humans will extinct
Yahya Sinwar is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
95
94
93
92
87
77
75
74
71
67
67
61
59
58
55
54
53
53
52
52
52
51
49
48
48
48
47
47
45
45
45
45
45
44
44
43
43
42
42
42
41
39
39
37
37
37
37
36
36
35
35
34
33
32
32
32
31
31
31
31
30
30
30
30
30
29
29
29
28
28
27
27
26
26
25
25
25
25
25
24
24
23
23
22
22
21
21
20
20
20
19
18
18
18
17
17
17
16
15
15
15
15
15
15
14
13
12
12
11
11
11
11
10
10
10
8
7
7
6
6
6
5
5
5
3
3
2
1
0
OptionProbability
Crewed mission to Phobos
USA adds 52nd state
24th Doctor Who regenerates into the 25th
President with Green Eyes elected
UK has a queen again
Olympics hosted in Japan again
ChatGPT 10 releases
RSA-2048 cracked
African company or country lands on moon
Harlem Globetrotters lose again
2000 Pokemon Released or franchise ceases
Batman enters the public domain
Room temperature superconductor discovered
The Beatles music enters the public domain
Japan Bans Whaling
Human walks on mars
Hershey's reintroduces the Gold bar
Tom Scott's This Video Has X Views hits 1B
human dies on the moon
Tom Scott's This Video Has X Views hits 500M
Pokemon Card sells for $10M
Olympics hosted in Africa
Pickleball in the Olympics
Norway Bans Whaling
First hispanic USA president
Longest suspension bridge record broken
Team Fortress 3 releases
Country claims the Bir Tawil triangle
End support date for Windows 12
Grand Theft Auto 7 releases
USA Adds 51st state
The first $10T market cap company
USA fully ends embargo on Cuba
The next 9.0 magnitude earthquake
Iceland Bans Whaling
The version after Windows 12 releases
EU reaches 30 member states
Centennial Lightbulb burns out
Underwater hold breath world record broken
Bugs Bunny enters public domain
Superman enters the public domain
Grimace Shake returns to McDonalds
Sitting USA president visits Belize for the first time
Peppa Pig ends
First asian USA president (as judged by self ID & manifold opinion after inauguration)
19th Doctor Who regenerates into 20th
Destiny retires from regular streaming
Bitcoin reaches $200K USD
Windows 11 end support date
Taika Waititi's Star Wars film releases
India hosts the Olympics
China invades Taiwan or resolves conflict
1500 Pokemon Released
Star Citizen releases or company ceases
Family Guy ends
Civilization 8 releases
Kingdom Hearts 4 releases
First female USA president
Two grand slams in one MLB game by one player again
South Park ends
Manifold reaches 20K MAU
ChatGPT 7 releases
Simpsons ends
Xi no longer in power in China
Human walks on moon again
Blood Meridian movie release
Trump Dies
Chicago ends on Broadway
Uber OR Lyft bankrupt / acquired / ceases
Half Life 3 releases
Manifold reaches 40K MAU
USA's Doris Miller aircraft carrier launched
1300 Pokemon Released
Another MLB perfect game pitched
James Cameron's Avatar 4 releases
Book of Mormon ends on Broadway
One piece manga ends
Human runs official marathon under 2h
Skibidi Toilet ends
Another Five Nights at Freddy's movie comes out
a USA president impeached again
Putin no longer in power in Russia
Burj Khalifa record for tallest building broken
Bitcoin reaches $150K USD
Grand Theft Auto 6 releases
First Trillionaire (USD)
marijuana no longer federally a schedule 1 drug in the USA
ChatGPT 6 releases
Russia / Ukraine conflict ceasefire
Shrek 5 releases
Sagrada Familia Church completed
Twitter gets a new CEO after Linda Yaccarino (or ceases operations)
Price of gold hits $5000/oz
The first $5T market cap company
USA discontinues or changes penny coin
Death Stranding 2 releases
First $100B revenue media franchise
New Pope after Francis
Civilization 7 releases
Bitcoin reaches $100K USD
Mario 64 120star speedrun WR 1h36m00s or less
Dallas Mavericks play in the NBA championship
Sweden joins NATO
82
77
74
73
73
72
71
69
68
67
66
66
66
65
64
63
63
61
61
59
58
57
57
57
56
55
54
54
53
52
49
49
47
47
45
44
44
42
41
40
40
38
38
38
37
37
37
35
35
35
35
34
33
33
33
33
32
31
31
31
31
30
29
29
28
27
26
25
24
24
24
24
23
23
23
22
21
20
20
20
20
20
20
19
19
18
18
17
17
17
13
12
10
9
8
7
6
6
5
4
3
2
1
OptionProbability
2030
2029
Other
2031
Demolished
2028
2027
25
24
17
15
10
8
2
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1035
971
OptionProbability
Tokyo Tower, Tokyo
Abeno Harukas, Osaka
Tsūtenkaku, Osaka
22 Bishopsgate, London
Tokyo Skytree, Tokyo
Sunshine 60, Tokyo
Eiffel Tower, Paris
The Shard, London
Osaka Prefectural Government Sakishima Building, Osaka
Roppongi Hills Mori Tower, Tokyo
Bunkyo Civic Center, Tokyo
Tokyo Metropolitan Government Building, Tokyo
Vilnius TV Tower, Vilnius
Burj Khalifa, Dubai
100
100
100
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
42
34
2
OptionVotes
YES
NO
116
97
OptionVotes
YES
NO
153
142

