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Prediction markets for CA
Will a democrat win the CA 1st congressional district special election to replace Doug LaMalfa?
Jan 6, 5:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
20.85%chance
53193
OptionVotes
1948
513
Will Tesla obtain a permit to operate paid driverless robotaxis in CA from the CPUC by the end of 2026 [description]
Jan 20, 11:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
12.21%chance
123039
OptionVotes
2560
534
Will Waymo's driverless robotaxi service be suspended in CA for 30 days before the end of 2026? [description]
Dec 17, 6:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
8.67%chance
72390
OptionVotes
2875
637
Will Waymo's driverless robotaxi service be suspended in CA for 30 days before the end of 2027? [description]
Feb 15, 2:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
15.12%chance
91823
OptionVotes
2369
422
Former Antioch, CA police officer Devon Wenger receives a federal pardon on or before January 20, 2029
Dec 2, 3:25 PMJan 20, 11:59 PM
63.53%chance
61274
OptionVotes
1320
758
Vote rigging scandal in UK, CA, Germany, Netherlands, Norway, DK, Sweden, Finland, or Ireland before 2027?
Dec 1, 9:41 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
27.12%chance
251206
OptionVotes
1532
694
Dyson Swarm reaches Earth's current energy generation level before CA High-Speed Rail is complete?
Sep 2, 5:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
19.46%chance
71183
OptionVotes
1644
100
Reviver, a digital license plate company, is out of business or failing in CA before EOY 2027
Sep 26, 7:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
34%chance
16949
OptionVotes
1435
654
Will Zoox obtain a permit to operate paid driverless robotaxis in CA from the CPUC by the end of 2026 [description]
Jan 27, 5:18 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
43.76%chance
4380
OptionVotes
1134
882
Will Zoox obtain an AV Driverless Deployment Permit from the CA DMV by the end of 2026
Jan 12, 4:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
58.06%chance
5197
OptionVotes
1177
850
OptionVotes
1030
971
Will "The Missing Genre: Heroic Parenthood - You ca..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Nov 29, 8:31 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14%chance
00
OptionVotes
1000
1000
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