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Prediction markets for CA
Will "LessOnline (May 31—June 2, Berkeley, CA)" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
Jun 3, 10:18 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
2%chance
44968
OptionVotes
5964
748
Will Tesla obtain an AV Driverless Testing or Deployment Permit from the CA DMV by the end of 2025
Apr 12, 4:55 PMJan 6, 7:59 AM
35.98%chance
342243
OptionVotes
1141
887
CA cities failing their housing element is gonna be a colossal ($100s Billions) deal, in hindsight in 2025
Jan 31, 6:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
12.77%chance
241795
OptionVotes
2247
563
Dyson Swarm reaches Earth's current energy generation level before CA High-Speed Rail is complete?
Sep 2, 5:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
19.46%chance
71183
OptionVotes
1644
100
Former Antioch, CA police officer Devon Wenger receives a federal pardon on or before January 20, 2029
Dec 2, 3:25 PMJan 20, 11:59 PM
65.01%chance
41174
OptionVotes
1363
734
OptionVotes
1166
857
Will Grindr crash near Anaheim CA when the "Maga Invasion" and "Mini Gay Days" happen at Disneyland, February 28, 2026?
Dec 1, 1:38 AMFeb 28, 11:59 PM
29.28%chance
11927
OptionVotes
1554
643
Will Zoox obtain an Autonomous Vehicle Deployment Permit from the CA DMV in 2025
Dec 10, 10:03 PMJan 8, 7:59 AM
30.86%chance
8874
OptionVotes
1497
668
Vote rigging scandal in UK, CA, Germany, Netherlands, Norway, DK, Sweden, Finland, or Ireland before 2027?
Dec 1, 9:41 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
42.25%chance
21731
OptionVotes
1057
941
Reviver, a digital license plate company, is out of business or failing in CA before EOY 2027
Sep 26, 7:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
51.14%chance
12332
OptionVotes
1029
953
OptionVotes
1010
990
Will "The Missing Genre: Heroic Parenthood - You ca..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Nov 29, 8:31 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14%chance
00
OptionVotes
1000
1000
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