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Top stories

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Prediction markets for California

Who will win the 2026 election for California's 11th Congressional District

Oct 17, 12:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43125821

OptionProbability

Scott Wiener

Connie Chan

Saikat Chakrabarti

Nancy Pelosi

Christine Pelosi

London Breed

Other

Jingchao Xiong

Darren Helton

54

24

16

2

2

1

1

0

0

Will Kamala Harris run for governor of California?

Nov 15, 1:41 AMNov 6, 4:59 AM

5.38%chance

58115754

OptionVotes

YES

NO

35321

5489

Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass?

Oct 25, 7:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.48%chance

221101020

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1189

471

EOY 2030, how difficult will it be to get gender affirming care (puberty blockers, HRT) for a minor in California?

Jan 22, 7:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4372539

OptionProbability

About the same as in 2024

Notably more difficult than in 2024

Notably easier than in 2024

Virtually impossible

33

33

19

15

Who will become the next governor of California after Gavin Newsom?

Jul 4, 12:46 AMJul 11, 8:59 PM

8459042

OptionProbability

Eric Swalwell

Matt Mahan

Tom Steyer

Katie Porter

Other

Antonio Villaraigosa

Steve Hilton

Xavier Becerra

Eleni Kounalakis

Toni Atkins

Tony Thurmond

Betty Yee

Rob Bonta

Rick Caruso

Kamala Harris

Ethan Agarwal

Alex Padilla

Jon Slavet

Jesse Perez

Michael L. Younger

Ian Calderon

36

25

10

7

4

3

3

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

California Prop 50 map used in 2026 election?

Nov 14, 7:36 AMOct 1, 10:59 PM

89.86%chance

4510231

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2977

336

SEIU "billionaire tax" qualifies for the November 2026 California ballot

Jan 10, 6:11 PMJun 25, 11:59 PM

53.8%chance

94548

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10795

9269

Dems lose California or New York by 2028?

Nov 9, 8:08 AMNov 7, 7:59 AM

4.09%chance

54176

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4842

207

Will California decriminalize psilocybin mushrooms before 2027?

Jan 14, 1:34 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

30.48%chance

301735

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1613

255

How many housing units will California authorize, 2025-2028? (linear, 250k-750k)

Oct 29, 4:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.01%chance

2172

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2772

2450

Who will win the 2026 election for California's 2nd State Senate district

Jun 18, 2:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Damon Connolly

James Gore

Natalie Rogers

Other

25

25

25

25

Who will win the 2026 election for California's 14th Congressional District

Jan 9, 5:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Matt Ortega

Abrar Qadir

Aisha Wahab

Other

25

25

25

25

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