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Top stories

Indonesia’s BMKG Warns of Heavy Rain as Tropical Disturbance 90W Builds

Natural Disasters

Indonesia’s BMKG Warns of Heavy Rain as Tropical Disturbance 90W Builds

Authors

16

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Central

8. AI a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms. Politics get complex, especially regarding job loss [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

62.52%chance

3826421

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1294

776

Will Javier Milei abolish the Argentinian central bank?

Nov 20, 12:30 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM

3.93%chance

15512616

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2953

23

Will the Central Bank of Argentina exist on January 1 2030?

Nov 21, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

83.71%chance

293286

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1721

748

Will the United States have an official central bank digital currency by the end of 2028?

Apr 5, 6:14 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10.31%chance

221650

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1994

797

Will Emmett Shear's new company make important and central contributions to AI alignment?

Mar 29, 8:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.14%chance

141487

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1991

502

Who will qualify to the 2027 ICPC NAC? (East Central Division only)

Oct 26, 8:00 PMNov 9, 4:59 AM

131392

OptionProbability

Carnegie Mellon University

University of Toronto St. George

Michigan State University

Other

University of Michigan

University of Toronto Mississauga

Toronto Metropolitan University

Pennsylvania State University

Ohio State University

Purdue University

University of Toronto Scarborough

University of Waterloo

84

73

59

57

29

28

20

14

14

5

5

2

Will a retail CBDC (central bank digital currency) go live in the USA and become available for public use before 2031?

Sep 6, 1:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.33%chance

241227

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1517

626

Will the U.S. have a central bank digital currency by 2030?

Mar 23, 11:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.35%chance

12775

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1576

548

Will the United States have an official central bank digital currency by the end of 2033?

Apr 5, 6:14 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

37.37%chance

20708

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1071

941

Will the United States have an official central bank digital currency by the end of 2038?

Apr 5, 6:14 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

47%chance

17311

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1089

904

Will OpenAI announce AGI before 2028 conditional on it centrally being an LLM?

Sep 16, 11:34 PMAug 1, 10:59 PM

37.78%chance

3310

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1283

779

Will the USG centralize frontier AI development in a single government project?

Nov 19, 2:42 PMDec 21, 4:59 AM

56.4%chance

5142

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NO

YES

1137

879

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 24, 2025
Aug 24, 2025
Indonesia
Natural Disasters
Environment
Indonesia’s BMKG Warns of Heavy Rain as Tropical Disturbance 90W Builds
Authors
16
1 year ago

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