OptionProbability
Before 2028
Before 2027
Before 2025
Before 2026
9
6
0
Officially confirmed that their chips are used by OpenAI, Anthropic, or DeepSeek, with a value of at least 100m USD, by mid 2028
IPO actually happens in 2026
At end of first day trading, valuation >10b
+3 years from IPO, the CEO is still in place (from IPO time)
HQ moves farther than 50 miles from sunnyvale city hall
+2 years from IPO, valuation is >100b
Has over 1000 employees at IPO time.
The CEO Andrew Feldman has a wikipedia page active on the IPO day
Is purchased by another company by mid 2028
Any of their CEOs visits the Qhite House, til mid 2027, media proof required*
Cerebras sells a consumer product, <10k usd, in US by mid 2027
Out of business by mid 2027
At end of first day trading, valuation >50b
IPO actually happens in 2027
IPO actually happens in 2025
100
93
74
50
48
45
37
31
20
18
14
1
OptionVotes
YES
NO
2550
392
1322
756
Taipei
New Taipei
Taoyuan
Yilan
Miaoli
Taichung
Kaohsiung
Tainan
Hsinchu
Chiayi
Yunlin
Changhua
Nantou
Hualien
Taitung
Penghu
Keelung
Pingtung
Kinmen
Lienchiang
87
76
56
34
Kenneth Mejia (incumbent)
Isadore Hall
Other
33
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