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Prediction markets for Contention
Will OpenAI pay scientific publishers for content by EOY 2025?
Jun 11, 4:41 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
24.04%chance
29058871
OptionVotes
19956
2816
Will there be any large-scale protests about content generated by Deep Learning by the end of 2025?
Dec 10, 5:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
19%chance
505555
OptionVotes
1941
522
Will LGBTQ+ content online be legally censored in the US before 2026?
Jan 30, 3:42 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
33.13%chance
373924
OptionVotes
1421
704
Will Manifold take down any user content due to legal threats that violate free speech principles before 2030?
Mar 6, 2:46 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
33.5%chance
71095
OptionVotes
1409
710
Will Mark Zuckerberg blame Trump threats/pressure for Meta content policy changes? (By March 2029)
Jan 18, 2:04 AMMar 31, 1:29 PM
27.66%chance
9930
OptionVotes
1617
618
Will Apple provide the content of an iMessage message to US law enforcement before January 20, 2029?
Jan 8, 7:34 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM
36.12%chance
11684
OptionVotes
1330
752
Grok uses Telegram channels as one of content sources by mid-2026?
May 31, 10:10 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM
51.35%chance
6675
OptionVotes
1032
978
Will two or more national level politicians endorse Nick Fuentes' content or claim they are a fan of his by 2026?
Aug 14, 6:20 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
31.11%chance
4577
OptionVotes
1488
672
Will Meta provide the content of a WhatsApp message to US law enforcement before January 20, 2029?
Jan 8, 2:50 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM
56.57%chance
4317
OptionVotes
1141
876
If I stick with Digital Ocean, will they attempt to censor any content I host with them before 2030?
Mar 6, 3:29 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
54.27%chance
4211
OptionVotes
1089
918
Will the EU regulate geo-blocking of copyright protected content by EOY 2027?
Feb 26, 8:39 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
52.31%chance
1198
OptionVotes
1003
997
Will the USA pass a content filtering law covering 3D-printed or other independently manufactured guns?
Jan 22, 2:53 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM
47.56%chance
150
OptionVotes
1050
952
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