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Continent News

    Prediction markets for Continent

    OptionProbability

    Europe

    South America

    Africa

    Asia

    North America

    Oceania

    99

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    OptionProbability

    Under 65 yo

    Under 60 yo

    Straight

    Has a STEM degree of any type

    Has any degree in physics, math, cs, or engineering

    Is an American citizen

    If male, taller than 5' 9", woman 5' 4" (~us 50th percentile)

    Has a Wikipedia page created in 2023 or earlier

    Serious rumors of the actual name announced will appear on Twitter at least 12 hours before nomination (subjective-ish)

    Under 55 yo

    Speaks a foreign language

    Wears glasses (ever in a recent-ish public photo)

    Has been a CEO

    Is married

    Under 50 yo

    Has children

    Self described person of color

    Has ethnic Asian heritage

    Has a regional or foreign accent (subjective) (not standard US; midlantic counts as an accent now)

    Software Engineering background

    Was not an American citizen at birth

    Went to a private high school

    Is known to have a dog or cat, or to have had one in the past

    Has a profile on google scholar (as of end 2023)

    Born in the cold season (oct-mar) in northern hemisphere or reverse if southern

    Citation count on google scholar is 1k+

    Has a github account which is known to be theirs (even w/out contributions)

    Has an active and identifiable twitter/x account at least a year at the time their name leaks as the new CEO

    Vegan or vegetarian (pescatarian, etc not included)

    Signatory of CAIS AI risk statement

    Has an acceptance or rejection from ycombinator in his/her history

    Has attended Davos

    Is publicly Atheist, agnostic, or a non-believer

    Grey hair (now, even partial grey like Sundar counts)

    Non-native English speaker

    CEO will take office after Q2 2027

    Born outside of the USA, Canada, and Europe

    Is an only child

    Born in the USA

    Has ethnic European heritage

    Diversity Points Score: 1

    Has visited or lived in China

    Has ever been divorced

    Has PhD

    Has a graduate or undergrad degree from any non US university

    Has a nickname and is often addressed by it (example: Larry for Lawrence)

    Under 45 yo

    Has written and published a book either academic or non

    Bald (Norwood Hamilton IV or more) in actual appearance at announcement

    Has ethnic Native people (any continent) heritage

    Has spent at least a month continuously in mainland China

    Has submitted and received 2+ patents

    Announcement of the appoint happens on a Friday

    Diversity Points Score: 0

    Under 40 yo

    Has Jewish heritage

    Neither parent attended college

    Was a college-level athlete

    Has any public mention of playing pickleball

    Has at least 3 children

    Is publicly Christian

    Diversity Points Score: 2

    Diversity Points Score: 5 or more

    Blue eyes

    Has a Wikipedia page created in 2015 or earlier

    Diversity Points Score: 3

    Diversity Points Score: 4

    If man, taller than 6'1", if woman taller than 5'10" (us ~95th percentile)

    Tattoo

    Has served in us govt

    Has passed a bar exam

    Female

    Born in the northeast

    Announcement of the appoint happens on a Monday

    Raised in a single parent family

    Left-handed

    Tattoo visible during inauguration speech

    Grew up in poverty

    Catholic

    Physics Background

    Green eyes

    Is Hispanic

    Both parents had PhDs

    LGBT*+

    Has military experience

    Has worked or attended school in Israel

    Is Muslim

    Unnatural hair colour

    Has ethnic African heritage

    Has the same family name as a previous google/alphabet CEO

    Has a physical disability

    Has been to space

    Has an ADOS background

    Pronouns are not standard

    Has a speech impediment

    Trans

    Is an AI

    Has a Manifold account

    97

    90

    89

    85

    84

    84

    83

    82

    69

    68

    67

    65

    65

    62

    62

    61

    58

    57

    56

    55

    53

    52

    52

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    49

    46

    46

    46

    45

    45

    44

    44

    43

    43

    40

    40

    38

    37

    37

    37

    36

    35

    35

    33

    32

    32

    31

    30

    29

    29

    29

    29

    29

    28

    28

    28

    28

    28

    27

    27

    27

    27

    25

    24

    23

    22

    22

    22

    22

    19

    19

    18

    18

    17

    17

    17

    17

    16

    15

    15

    13

    13

    11

    10

    9

    8

    7

    3

    3

    2

    2

    2

    United nations - will it stand by 2040?

    Jun 25, 11:16 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
    465792

    OptionProbability

    Remains without any contender organization

    Remains existing, but there is/are other organization thay claim the same missions, and have membership of at least 60% of the countries that represent at least 60% of total human population, present on all continents

    It still exists, but members are less than 60% of the recognized countries or contain less than 60% of world population, and there are no contender organizations that meet these criteria

    Disbanded and replaced with another organization (the League of Nations trajectory) that achives worldwide acceptance

    Disbanded, and there is no alternate organization which achieves global concensus (present on all continents, at least 60% of recognized countries are members, and they represent 60% of human population)

    Remains, and Its UPGRADED, covering 99% of habitable earth and maintaining high conflict resolution capabilities and in possession of nuclear weapons

    79

    20

    18

    15

    12

    12

    A company from which continent will achieve AGI first?

    Jan 3, 2:03 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
    804584

    OptionProbability

    North America

    Europe

    Asia

    Other

    Antarctica

    81

    9

    9

    1

    0

    OptionProbability

    South America

    Europe

    Africa

    Asia

    North America

    Australia

    Antarctica

    34

    21

    17

    14

    10

    3

    1

    OptionProbability

    Burnham meets with Donald Trump (must be in-person)

    Burnham travels to at least four continents

    The UK will be overtaken in GDP by any other country with a lower GDP

    UK General Election

    Burnham meets with Pope Leo XIV (must be in-person, not a telephone call)

    Burnham travels to at least five continents

    Burnham attends an American Football game

    A former UK Prime Minister dies

    Burnham travels to at least six continents

    Burnham meets with Vladimir Putin (must be in-person)

    New British Monarch

    Scotland OR Northern Ireland leave the UK

    Burnham meets with Kim Jong-un (must be in person)

    Burnham is arrested or fined

    96

    94

    92

    79

    54

    51

    50

    37

    34

    24

    21

    13

    12

    3

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1000

    1000

    OptionProbability

    CONCACAF / North America

    CONMEBOL / South America

    UEFA / Europe

    AFC / Asia

    CAF / Africa

    OFC / Oceania

    Other

    35

    25

    14

    10

    10

    5

    1

    OptionProbability

    Europe

    Africa

    Other

    Oceania

    South America

    Asia

    North America

    Antarctica

    16

    16

    16

    13

    13

    11

    9

    7

    OptionProbability

    Europe

    North America

    South/Central America

    Oceania

    Asia

    Africa

    51

    10

    10

    10

    10

    10

    Is Europe a continent?

    Mar 15, 3:49 AM
    830

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