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Top stories

Clashes Erupt in Deir ez-Zour Between Syrian Democratic Forces and Government Troops Despite March Integration Deal

Authors

5

7 months ago

Prediction markets for Dama

Will an AI related disaster kill a million people or cause $1T of damage before 2070?

Sep 2, 8:54 AMSep 9, 10:59 PM

44%chance

568669

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1047

854

Will prominent rationalists judge that Trump's second term was the most damaging term in the last 68 years?

Jan 8, 4:43 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

73.39%chance

387268

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1661

602

Will a piece of LLM malware cause at least $100 million in damage before 2028?

Feb 13, 4:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.34%chance

162288

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1013

987

Will any advanced AI chip fabs or their key supply chains be heavily physically damaged deliberately by 2028?

Nov 3, 6:13 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

25.45%chance

281988

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1205

883

Will Lantern Bioworks be sued over harm and found liable for damage caused by their Lumina treatment by the end of 2029?

Apr 13, 4:07 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

26.13%chance

201986

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1056

652

Will any computer virus powered by AI cause large damages to digital infrastructure by 2027?

Sep 13, 11:40 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

24.49%chance

291424

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1203

914

The Five Proud Boys Leaders get one dollar or more compensatory or punitive damages.

Jun 7, 5:52 PMJun 7, 5:46 PM

44.18%chance

5646

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1124

890

Will the Common Fallow Deer, aka European Fallow Deer (Dama dama) become extinct in the current century?

Apr 17, 8:12 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

10.78%chance

7502

OptionVotes

YES

NO

903

385

[Metaculus] Before 2032, will we see 1k deaths or $200B in economic damage caused by AI malfunction?

Mar 13, 6:48 AMJan 2, 11:00 AM

32.63%chance

6265

OptionVotes

YES

NO

217

148

Ukraine damages Kremlin with drone or missile before Russia-Ukraine war ends?

Sep 29, 11:54 PMSep 29, 11:52 PM

38.2%chance

7121

OptionVotes

YES

NO

127

79

If SB 1047 is not passed and an AI tool causes $500mn of damages, will the respective AI lab pay over 10% in damages?

Sep 27, 10:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.64%chance

250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1048

954

[Carlini questions] Thousands of deaths / billions of dollars in damage caused by AI systems within 3 days by 2030

Mar 24, 1:57 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

328

OptionProbability

0 - 0.1 thousand deaths or bn$ in damages

100+ thousand deaths or bn$ in damages

1 - 10 thousand deaths or bn$ in damages

0.1 - 0.5 thousand deaths or bn$ in damages

0.5 - 1 thousand deaths or bn$ in damages

10 - 100 thousand deaths or bn$ in damages

32

19

16

11

11

11

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 15, 2025
Aug 15, 2025
Syria
War
Politics
Clashes Erupt in Deir ez-Zour Between Syrian Democratic Forces and Government Troops Despite March Integration Deal
Authors
5
7 months ago

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