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Top stories

Clashes Erupt in Deir ez-Zour Between Syrian Democratic Forces and Government Troops Despite March Integration Deal

Authors

5

4 months ago

Prediction markets for Dama

Will an AI related disaster kill a million people or cause $1T of damage before 2070?

Sep 2, 8:54 AMSep 9, 10:59 PM

44%chance

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OptionVotes

YES

NO

1047

854

Will prominent rationalists judge that Trump's second term was the most damaging term in the last 68 years?

Jan 8, 4:43 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

73.93%chance

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NO

YES

1684

594

Will I confidently think in 2026 that taking 120mg MDMA once every two months is less damaging to health than drinking two beers every night for 8 days in a row once every two months?

Dec 23, 7:08 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

46.99%chance

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NO

YES

1204

861

Will Harvard be found liable for damages to Gino, conditional on a trial verdict being reached by 2026?

Aug 22, 11:34 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

26.38%chance

162263

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NO

YES

1305

1290

Will any advanced AI chip fabs or their key supply chains be heavily physically damaged deliberately by 2028?

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25.45%chance

281988

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1205

883

Will Lantern Bioworks be sued over harm and found liable for damage caused by their Lumina treatment by the end of 2029?

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26.13%chance

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NO

YES

1056

652

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Aug 22, 8:37 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

9.7%chance

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YES

NO

1976

1293

Will any computer virus powered by AI cause large damages to digital infrastructure by 2027?

Sep 13, 11:40 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

26.64%chance

271321

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1111

946

The Five Proud Boys Leaders get one dollar or more compensatory or punitive damages.

Jun 7, 5:52 PMJun 7, 5:46 PM

48.81%chance

4546

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1024

976

If Trump appeals the verdict ordering him to pay $83.3 million in defamation damages to E.Jean Carroll, will he win?

Jan 27, 12:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

22.78%chance

15521

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NO

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1067

597

Will the Common Fallow Deer, aka European Fallow Deer (Dama dama) become extinct in the current century?

Apr 17, 8:12 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

10.78%chance

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NO

903

385

If SB 1047 is not passed and an AI tool causes $500mn of damages, will the respective AI lab pay over 10% in damages?

Sep 27, 10:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.64%chance

250

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YES

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1048

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Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 15, 2025
Aug 15, 2025
Syria
War
Politics
Clashes Erupt in Deir ez-Zour Between Syrian Democratic Forces and Government Troops Despite March Integration Deal
Authors
5
4 months ago

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