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Prediction markets for Dama
Will an AI related disaster kill a million people or cause $1T of damage before 2070?
Sep 2, 8:54 AMSep 9, 10:59 PM
44%chance
568669
OptionVotes
1047
854
Will prominent rationalists judge that Trump's second term was the most damaging term in the last 68 years?
Jan 8, 4:43 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM
72.8%chance
387293
OptionVotes
1636
611
Major company suffers serious damage from AI agent in 2026?
Apr 19, 2:14 AMJan 7, 11:59 PM
12.1%chance
496892
OptionVotes
2696
371
Will there be an AI loss of control incident that causes over $100 million in damages in 2026?
Apr 1, 7:52 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
23.76%chance
273028
OptionVotes
1716
730
Will a piece of LLM malware cause at least $100 million in damage before 2028?
Feb 13, 4:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
49.34%chance
162288
OptionVotes
1013
987
Will any advanced AI chip fabs or their key supply chains be heavily physically damaged deliberately by 2028?
Nov 3, 6:13 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
25.45%chance
281988
OptionVotes
1205
883
Will any computer virus powered by AI cause large damages to digital infrastructure by 2027?
Sep 13, 11:40 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
38%chance
331663
OptionVotes
1106
770
The Five Proud Boys Leaders get one dollar or more compensatory or punitive damages.
Jun 7, 5:52 PMMar 31, 5:46 PM
44.19%chance
7657
OptionVotes
1124
890
Will at least 4 of Nectome's first 20 clients have significant damage?
Apr 15, 3:57 AMApr 15, 3:45 AM
66.75%chance
5507
OptionVotes
1106
740
Will the Common Fallow Deer, aka European Fallow Deer (Dama dama) become extinct in the current century?
Apr 17, 8:12 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
10.78%chance
7502
OptionVotes
903
385
Will someone in "dama iipeikou" newly solve Project Euler 696 before the end of this year?
Jul 30, 5:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
37.2%chance
6119
OptionVotes
130
77
If SB 1047 is not passed and an AI tool causes $500mn of damages, will the respective AI lab pay over 10% in damages?
Sep 27, 10:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
47.64%chance
250
OptionVotes
1048
954