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Prediction markets for Dama
Will an AI related disaster kill a million people or cause $1T of damage before 2070?
Sep 2, 8:54 AMSep 9, 10:59 PM
44%chance
568669
OptionVotes
1047
854
Will prominent rationalists judge that Trump's second term was the most damaging term in the last 68 years?
Jan 8, 4:43 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM
73.93%chance
377145
OptionVotes
1684
594
Will I confidently think in 2026 that taking 120mg MDMA once every two months is less damaging to health than drinking two beers every night for 8 days in a row once every two months?
Dec 23, 7:08 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
46.99%chance
572386
OptionVotes
1204
861
Will Harvard be found liable for damages to Gino, conditional on a trial verdict being reached by 2026?
Aug 22, 11:34 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
26.38%chance
162263
OptionVotes
1305
1290
Will any advanced AI chip fabs or their key supply chains be heavily physically damaged deliberately by 2028?
Nov 3, 6:13 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
25.45%chance
281988
OptionVotes
1205
883
Will Lantern Bioworks be sued over harm and found liable for damage caused by their Lumina treatment by the end of 2029?
Apr 13, 4:07 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
26.13%chance
201986
OptionVotes
1056
652
Will any of the Data Colada members be found liable for damages to Gino, conditional on a trial verdict being reached?
Aug 22, 8:37 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
9.7%chance
181509
OptionVotes
1976
1293
Will any computer virus powered by AI cause large damages to digital infrastructure by 2027?
Sep 13, 11:40 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
26.64%chance
271321
OptionVotes
1111
946
The Five Proud Boys Leaders get one dollar or more compensatory or punitive damages.
Jun 7, 5:52 PMJun 7, 5:46 PM
48.81%chance
4546
OptionVotes
1024
976
If Trump appeals the verdict ordering him to pay $83.3 million in defamation damages to E.Jean Carroll, will he win?
Jan 27, 12:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
22.78%chance
15521
OptionVotes
1067
597
Will the Common Fallow Deer, aka European Fallow Deer (Dama dama) become extinct in the current century?
Apr 17, 8:12 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
10.78%chance
7502
OptionVotes
903
385
If SB 1047 is not passed and an AI tool causes $500mn of damages, will the respective AI lab pay over 10% in damages?
Sep 27, 10:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
47.64%chance
250
OptionVotes
1048
954