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Prediction markets for Darwin
Will Elon Musk reject Darwinian Evolution before January 1, 2026?
Dec 3, 7:51 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
3.56%chance
5714482
OptionVotes
5202
192
[Mega-market - add options] Who will directly and intentionally kill someone in their lifetime?
Mar 29, 12:56 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM
192474
OptionProbability
100
13
7
7
6
4
4
4
3
Will Australia-Asia Power Link deliver 900 megawatts of electricity to Darwin by 2030?
Aug 23, 9:59 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM
19.92%chance
21005
OptionVotes
2005
499
OptionVotes
658
90
OptionProbability
24
18
12
9
9
7
6
5
5
5
OptionProbability
38
35
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
24
22
OptionVotes
172
91
Will Guillaume Verdon/BasedBeffJezos win a Darwin award by EOY 2040?
Jan 1, 1:32 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
9.5%chance
6177
OptionVotes
267
92
OptionVotes
238
73
OptionProbability
75
66
66
66
50
50
50
50
Will the Darwin Godel Machine be applied to one of Joseph Suarez's RL environments, like pufferfish by 2028?
May 31, 4:13 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
33.78%chance
340
OptionVotes
140
71
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