Darwin News
Top stories
Prediction markets for Darwin
[Mega-market - add options] Who will directly and intentionally kill someone in their lifetime?
Mar 29, 12:56 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM
192474
OptionProbability
100
13
7
7
6
4
4
4
3
Will Australia-Asia Power Link deliver 900 megawatts of electricity to Darwin by 2030?
Aug 23, 9:59 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM
13.75%chance
31505
OptionVotes
2505
399
OptionVotes
581
34
OptionVotes
658
90
OptionProbability
29
20
10
8
7
6
5
5
5
5
OptionProbability
41
38
35
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
25
25
Will Guillaume Verdon/BasedBeffJezos win a Darwin award by EOY 2040?
Jan 1, 1:32 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
9.5%chance
6177
OptionVotes
267
92
Will José Luis Ricón Fernández de la Puente win a Darwin Award by EOY 2040?
Jan 1, 1:33 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
10%chance
5174
OptionVotes
238
73
Will China's Darwin neuromorphic chip create an LLM in 2026?
Nov 29, 9:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
29.39%chance
275
OptionVotes
155
65
OptionProbability
75
66
66
66
50
50
50
50
Will the Darwin Godel Machine be applied to one of Joseph Suarez's RL environments, like pufferfish by 2028?
May 31, 4:13 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
33.78%chance
340
OptionVotes
140
71


