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Prediction markets for Deval
OptionProbability
22
17
12
7
6
4
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Who will be the President of the United States of America at some point in their life?
Mar 27, 1:20 PMSep 9, 2:29 PM
379133111
OptionProbability
41
22
18
17
16
13
13
11
10
10
10
9
9
8
8
8
7
7
7
7
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
Who will win at least one state in the 2028 Democratic Party presidential primaries?
Mar 25, 1:59 PMAug 8, 1:30 PM
11628581
OptionProbability
66
50
33
25
25
24
18
16
13
10
9
9
7
7
7
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
2
2
2
1
1
1
Will Twitter beat Tumblr at "97% devaluation speedrun"
Oct 29, 6:23 AMOct 29, 3:59 AM
6.9%chance
485147
OptionVotes
2401
776
How many of the original 100 answers in this market will become President of the United States?
Mar 30, 6:09 PMJan 2, 1:29 PM
301501
OptionProbability
83
79
57
36
25
23
12
10
8
7
5
OptionProbability
39
25
20
4
3
2
2
2
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Will Costcos in US further devalue their hot dog and soda combo before the end of 2026?
May 8, 5:15 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM
51%chance
853
OptionVotes
119
98
Will Costcos in US further devalue their hot dog and soda combo before the end of 2027?
May 8, 5:16 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM
66.7%chance
435
OptionVotes
137
92
Will "Short Timelines Don't Devalue Long Horizon Re..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
May 27, 8:21 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14.88%chance
110
OptionVotes
1010
941
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