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Prediction markets for East Africa
After 6 months without open warfare, who will be in control of Gaza?
Nov 2, 6:19 PMNov 9, 11:59 PM
22427674
OptionProbability
28
27
25
7
4
3
2
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Will there be an Arab Spring-style wave of political unrest in the Middle East? [2025]
Jul 26, 1:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
4.96%chance
275407
OptionVotes
4502
453
Will GiveWell fund Educate! Experience program by 1st January 2027?
Dec 17, 7:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
19.92%chance
92626
OptionVotes
4193
4124
OptionProbability
45
36
13
12
11
11
11
10
10
10
9
9
7
Will the East African Federation be a member of the UN before 2030?
Oct 20, 1:20 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
5.87%chance
41179
OptionVotes
368
30
OptionProbability
63
18
11
9
Will East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP) be in operation until December 31st 2025?
Oct 11, 11:41 AMDec 31, 8:59 PM
2.41%chance
3412
OptionVotes
318
8
Will the East African Federation legally exist by January 1st, 2030?
Jul 1, 4:37 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
18.64%chance
14391
OptionVotes
980
945
OptionVotes
1053
914
Will the Caracal (Caracal caracal) become extinct in the current century?
Mar 30, 6:17 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
17.09%chance
5262
OptionVotes
697
422
OptionProbability
95
88
66
66
66
46
39
Will a middle spotted woodpecker be seen in Britain by the end of 2030?
Apr 8, 2:19 PMJan 1, 12:00 PM
53.52%chance
8103
OptionVotes
154
144
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