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Prediction markets for Eris
OptionProbability
2090
1762
Eric Adams switches party affiliation from Democrat before January 1, 2026
Dec 4, 3:07 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM
61.4%chance
2510624
OptionVotes
1261
793
OptionProbability
100
100
100
100
87
72
66
44
38
37
36
35
35
35
33
31
31
30
27
24
22
15
13
9
8
7
6
5
5
4
4
1
Levy Rozman (Gotham Chess) or Eric Rosen becomes a GM by 2035
Jan 24, 10:04 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
20.01%chance
423064
OptionVotes
1002
968
Eric Adams no longer identifies as a Democrat by December 31, 2025
Apr 12, 8:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
67%chance
232093
OptionVotes
1425
702
OptionProbability
64
57
55
52
49
47
44
43
34
34
27
27
27
27
25
21
21
18
14
13
5
OptionProbability
61
18
7
6
5
4
Will there be HD real images (e.g. telescope, probe) of the dwarf planet Eris by 2030?
Jan 9, 3:47 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
12.5%chance
18649
OptionVotes
1360
886
Will there be a successful orbital rocket launch from UK soil this decade? (Eric Berger prediction)
Feb 13, 7:22 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM
50.64%chance
11550
OptionVotes
1013
987
Will a crossing of the Bab-el-Mandeb, between Yemen and Djibouti or Eritrea, have started construction by 2040?
Jul 4, 8:28 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM
21.22%chance
13326
OptionVotes
1122
944
Will Erik Hoel create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
Jan 9, 5:21 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
64%chance
16307
OptionVotes
1060
959
Will the Eritrean government collapse before or within 5 years of Isaias Afwerki's death?
May 26, 3:54 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
55.04%chance
2110
OptionVotes
1106
904
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