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Bolsonaro Leaves House Arrest for Exams, Diagnosed With Gastritis
Authors
11
9 months ago
Prediction markets for Federal District
Any of Elon Musk's America Party's candidates wins a seat in Congress in 2026
Jul 9, 9:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
3.7%chance
176384
OptionVotes
5104
196
Any of Elon Musk's America Party's candidates wins 10%+ of vote for a Congressional seat in 2026?
Jul 10, 1:17 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
3.97%chance
204790
OptionVotes
4917
203
US city, county or state is renamed, min pop 250k, by mid 2028
Jul 26, 7:15 PMAug 1, 6:59 AM
39.13%chance
74647
OptionVotes
12472
8018
OptionProbability
51
30
14
2
2
1
Will The New York Times win its copyright infringement suit against OpenAI and Microsoft?
Dec 27, 6:13 PMJun 1, 5:59 AM
57.92%chance
534383
OptionVotes
1044
928
Will Texas's 2025 redistricting map be used in the 2026 midterms?
Nov 18, 9:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
95.46%chance
204111
OptionVotes
4583
218
OptionVotes
1469
713
Will SCOTUS rule in favor of Trump in Trump v. Cook?
Jan 19, 12:45 AMJan 1, 12:59 AM
24.8%chance
151967
OptionVotes
1741
574
Which NYC-DSA non-incumbent candidates will win their primaries in June 2026?
Apr 15, 12:34 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM
7470
OptionProbability
96
96
88
88
77
72
57
50
50
44
Will an animal in the US be recognized as a person by US courts before 2030?
Sep 11, 9:45 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
26.56%chance
12373
OptionVotes
1075
955
OptionProbability
61
29
2
2
2
2
2
Annual wealth tax in any US state or federally before 2031?
Mar 31, 12:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
42.14%chance
222
OptionVotes
117
85