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Prediction markets for Frontier
Will any frontier lab be near-fully automated before 2029?
May 10, 6:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
30.7%chance
298803
OptionVotes
15025
6656
Will there be an international moratorium on frontier AGI development by EOY 2033?
Mar 24, 2:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
21.6%chance
154159
OptionVotes
13624
8759
Frontier LLM mobile apps can be backgrounded mid reasoning in November 2026?
Nov 18, 8:23 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM
91.72%chance
193739
OptionVotes
3341
301
Will a frontier model be found to have exfiltrated its weights and run an outside copy of itself before Q2 2027?
Aug 6, 8:03 AMMar 31, 11:59 PM
16.95%chance
342680
OptionVotes
2726
1335
Will Anthropic release a system card of a model at a new frontier of intellegence by August 31st?
Jun 14, 2:59 PMAug 30, 11:59 PM
53.54%chance
111536
OptionVotes
1073
932
Any American frontier AI lab (e.g. OpenAI, Anthropic) nationalized by EOY 2027?
Feb 25, 6:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
33.65%chance
24867
OptionVotes
1144
979
Before 2027, will OpenAI release a frontier model with a 5:1 or better abstention to hallucination ratio on SimpleQA?
Sep 20, 10:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
61.22%chance
6472
OptionVotes
1256
796
Before 2029, will OpenAI provide API access to a frontier LLM with 100,000,000+ context length?
Aug 12, 11:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
48.92%chance
4194
OptionVotes
1022
979
Before 2027, will an AI product from an American frontier lab readily identify Fetal Alcohol Syndrome in faces?
Sep 15, 11:02 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
44.97%chance
4190
OptionVotes
1106
904
Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?
Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM
48.12%chance
4157
OptionVotes
1091
1011
Will the USG centralize frontier AI development in a single government project?
Nov 19, 2:42 PMDec 21, 4:59 AM
56.4%chance
5142
OptionVotes
1137
879
Before 2027, will OpenAI release a Frontier Model trained according to their "Why LLMs hallucinate" paper?
Sep 20, 9:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
48.5%chance
270
OptionVotes
1030
971