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Top stories

Vantage Unveils $25 Billion Texas Campus as AI Data-Center Spending Soars

Vantage Unveils $25 Billion Texas Campus as AI Data-Center Spending Soars

Authors

18

11 hours ago

Prediction markets for Frontier

When will Frontier Airlines first offer transatlantic flights?

Nov 16, 7:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1297277

OptionProbability

Other

Q4 2025

Q3 2025

Q2 2025

Q1 2024

Q4 2023

Q2 2024

Q3 2024

Q4 2024

Q1 2025

44

24

22

3

2

1

1

1

1

1

Will a Chinese-made AI beat o3's December score on Frontier Math by the end of 2025?

Dec 23, 1:32 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

30.25%chance

9837981

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1519

659

Will any AI model achieve > 40% on Frontier Math before 2026?

Jan 17, 9:55 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

71.49%chance

4814161

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1584

631

Will the US or UK nationalize any frontier AI labs by 2035?

May 20, 2:41 PMJan 8, 7:59 AM

44.8%chance

302531

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1110

901

DeepSeek open-source frontier model after 3/23/26?

Mar 25, 1:21 PMMar 23, 11:59 PM

48.27%chance

192251

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1035

966

Will a frontier-level diffusion LLM exist by 2028?

Mar 1, 8:40 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

41.19%chance

10810

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1195

837

Before 2026, will frontier AI models get much better at expressing calibrated uncertainty in their answers?

Feb 6, 12:28 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

65.35%chance

8758

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1373

728

Will the US require a license to develop frontier AI models by 2028?

Apr 28, 1:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.02%chance

20553

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1211

711

Will there be a significant advancement in frontier AI model architecture by end of year 2026?

Aug 14, 10:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39%chance

6277

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1251

800

Will the USG centralize frontier AI development in a single government project?

Nov 19, 2:42 PMDec 21, 4:59 AM

56.51%chance

4140

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1140

877

Before 2029, will OpenAI provide API access to a frontier LLM with 100,000,000+ context length?

Aug 12, 11:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.7%chance

3117

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1056

947

Before 2027, will an AI product from an American frontier lab readily identify Fetal Alcohol Syndrome in faces?

Sep 15, 11:02 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

49.69%chance

390

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1006

994

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 19, 2025
Aug 19, 2025
AI Products
Energy
Texas
Vantage Unveils $25 Billion Texas Campus as AI Data-Center Spending Soars
Authors
18
11 hours ago

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