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Top stories

JPMorgan, MUFG Poised to Finance $22 Billion Texas AI Data-Center Campus

Authors

11

4 months ago

Prediction markets for Frontier

When will Frontier Airlines first offer transatlantic flights?

Nov 16, 7:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16171763

OptionProbability

Other

Q4 2023

Q1 2024

Q2 2024

Q3 2024

Q4 2024

Q1 2025

Q2 2025

Q3 2025

Q4 2025

99

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will a Chinese-made AI beat o3's December score on Frontier Math by the end of 2025?

Dec 23, 1:32 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

13.91%chance

10844358

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2487

402

Will any AI model achieve > 40% on Frontier Math before 2026?

Jan 17, 9:55 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

47.56%chance

9042786

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

952

DeepSeek open-source frontier model after 3/23/26?

Mar 25, 1:21 PMMar 23, 11:59 PM

57.01%chance

298365

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1152

868

SOAI#8: A Chinese lab overtakes the US lab dominated frontier on a major leaderboard (e.g. LMArena/Artificial Analysis)

Oct 9, 11:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.77%chance

291806

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1025

976

Before 2029, will OpenAI provide API access to a frontier LLM with 100,000,000+ context length?

Aug 12, 11:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.02%chance

3192

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1020

981

Before 2027, will a frontier AI model achieve an AA-Omniscience hallucination rate below 5%?

Nov 23, 10:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.06%chance

2150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1150

870

Will the USG centralize frontier AI development in a single government project?

Nov 19, 2:42 PMDec 21, 4:59 AM

56.51%chance

4140

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1140

877

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

50.47%chance

3107

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1059

1041

Before 2027, will an AI product from an American frontier lab readily identify Fetal Alcohol Syndrome in faces?

Sep 15, 11:02 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

49.69%chance

390

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1006

994

Before 2027, will OpenAI release a frontier model with a 5:1 or better abstention to hallucination ratio on SimpleQA?

Sep 20, 10:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.89%chance

380

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1018

982

Before 2027, will OpenAI release a Frontier Model trained according to their "Why LLMs hallucinate" paper?

Sep 20, 9:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.5%chance

270

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1030

971

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 20, 2025
Aug 20, 2025
Texas
Business
AI
JPMorgan, MUFG Poised to Finance $22 Billion Texas AI Data-Center Campus
Authors
11
4 months ago

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